讓美國有體面地接受美元不再是國際儲備貨幣的事實
明報論壇：人民銀行行長周小川，建議由 SDR 取代美元成為國際儲備貨幣，繼續引起國際輿論關注。美國前財政部助理部長 Fred Bergsten 於4月9日在《金融時報》撰文支持周小川的建議。 We should listen to Beijing’s currency idea Fred Bergsten 彼得森國際經濟研究所主管 Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1977至1981年曾任美國財政部助理部長。
【明報專訊】中國人民銀行行長周小川提議創立一種「超級主權儲備貨幣」，長遠而言希望這貨幣可逐漸取代美元的地位，並顯著地提升特別提款權(SDR)在全球的角色。SDR是國際貨幣基金組織1960年代末創立的一種國際資產，最近獲20國集團增資2500億美元儲備。今次是中國以及新興市場經濟體首次提出的國際貨幣體系改革之重要建議，單是這一理由就值得認真對待。
亞洲數個國家、巴西和俄羅斯已對周小川的建議表示支持，美國及其他國家則迅速表示反對，並重申對美元作為全球中心貨幣的信心。很明顯，他們擔心針對這問題的認真討論可能會動搖外界對美元的信心，拖低美元匯價並引發歐元及其他貨幣大幅升值。這種不穩定以及伴隨而來的全球利率上升，將令全球實現復蘇的過程更為複雜。
取代帳戶是一個多贏建議
但其實我們正面對一個更即時的金融穩定威脅：面對美國政府龐大及持續的財赤，中國及其他經濟體系失去對美元的信心；而這些體系共持有總計超過5萬億美元的儲備。中國或其他美元主要持有者若大幅改變對美元的態度，甚至只要是市場擔憂他們會改變態度，都可能會引發投資者大規模拋售美元。
面對這危機，周小川的建議是由國際貨幣基金創建一個「以SDR作貨幣基礎的開放式基金」，國際貨幣基金的美元餘額可以兌換成SDR。這基本上是國際貨幣基金在1970年代末曾商議過的概念，當時還制定了詳細藍本。
這種取代帳戶是一個多贏的建議：美元持有者可即時獲得分散的貨幣組合；美國可避免美元急瀉的風險；歐洲也能預防歐元大幅升值；全球體系可去除巨大的不穩定之潛在威脅。
反對設立取代帳戶的主要理由是，中國現今所累積的超過1萬億美元儲備，是由於大舉干預外匯市場至使人民幣幣值被低估而致，所以，就算中國若因美元匯價而虧損也不值得同情。有些人甚至可能猜測，中國其實已經在心理上接受了這些虧損，並將其視為通過匯率操控來補貼出口和就業的隱含成本。然而，目前沒有跡象顯示中國將停止干預，又或者其盈餘會減少，儘管美國外貿赤字已大幅下降，這只會令中國外匯儲備的持續累積變得更具威脅。
此外，這議題是理想的課題讓中美開展非正式的「G2」合作伙伴關係，並以此發揮領導全球經濟的作用，推動現存的多邊經濟體關係進行所需的改革。由於中國主張全球貨幣整合，美國可藉此堅持中國應大力負擔國際貨幣基金新貸款措施所需的資金。
計劃將需要獲得歐洲的同意，因為這計劃將大幅提高中國在國際貨幣基金的投票權比重，而現在歐洲在國際貨幣基金的代表權則過重；不過只要中美有所共識，協議最終也可以通過的。
怎樣令美元有體面地，不再成為國際儲備貨幣，看來就是下一個課題。
由美國擺脫金本位制度，進入 Fiat Money 制度，美國國債升幅驚人，再在小布殊年代，展開反恐戰爭，入侵阿庫汗，占領伊拉克，軍費驚人，適逢金融大海嘯，繼任的奧巴馬，大開水喉，對各方面注資，美國政府負債，已經去到令人擔憂的程度。
加印再加印，加印再加印的美國 green back money 泛濫，加上美國利率近附零，美元的購買力下降，美元作為儲備貨幣的能力，受到質疑已久。
無論奧巴馬和蓋特立，出來講幾多次，都是無補于事，事實上已經證明，美元作為儲備貨幣能力下降，各國政府，急謀對策。
給奧巴馬政府一個下臺階，讓美國有體面地接受，美元不再是國際儲備貨幣『這個事實』，是今後幾個月，國際金融事務的財金官員，擺在桌面上的必然事務。
伸延閱覽：
We should listen to Beijing’s currency idea F.T.Com
應聽聽北京的貨幣改革意見 明報論壇
何謂：super-sovereign reserve currency 超級主權儲備貨幣 谷歌搜尋
Proposal of the Governor of the People's Bank of China
presented to the G20 Meetings Global Research
我的舊文：
1,000,000,000,000 就是一萬億嘞！
刺激 spending 和 multiplier effect
再不是金本位的美元仍是風險避難所
用一籃子商品為港幣下錨
讓黃金與美元重新掛鈎
奧巴馬啟動美國特色的社會主義
連僅餘的都被通漲侵蝕埋
從溫家寶談的憂慮到曾蔭權說的港幣脫鈎
瘋人瘋語
「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問，一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家，如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家，且既沒諮詢當地公民，又沒給予他們民主的前景，好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說，奇怪，香港提出最理智問題的人，竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報 “During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times
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16 comments:
then what is the currency to replace? gold.....?
AK 姐：文中引用明報特譯 Fred Bergsten的文章內容已有說明。
Fred Bergsten：中國人民銀行行長周小川，提議創立一種「超級主權儲備貨幣」，長遠而言希望這貨幣，可逐漸取代美元的地位，並顯著地提升特別提款權(SDR)在全球的角色。
原文英語版
Fred Bergsten：Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, has suggested creating a “super-sovereign reserve currency” to replace the dollar over the long run. He would sharply enhance the global role of special drawing rights.
至于何謂：super-sovereign reserve currency 可點擊連結，謝謝光臨！
伸延閱覽：Proposal of the Governor of the People's Bank of China
presented to the G20 Meetings
唔好畀佢停,
請繼續下去!
喂，如果個博真係唔可以留，就開過一個新博，搬過去啦！總之唔好唔寫呀? 仲有呀，三劍俠後花園唔好拆呀！！
同意,
我哋唔可以向惡勢力低頭架,
再唔係,
發起大遊行抗議,
最多個新嘅,
我第一個留言!
thanks for your support from the bottom of my heart!
The following was the message I received from blogger yesterday and it was also shown on my dashboard after I logged in. It said the same that my blog was being locked from publish new posting(s).
Quoting:
"Your blog at: http://mindnecessity.blogspot.com/ has been identified as a spam blog......... Your blog is being locked and prohibited from publishing new blog(s)........It will be deleted within 20 days..........Your readers will see a warning page during this time."
By they way did you people see the WARNING when you entering my blog?
冇呀，暫時都冇睇到咩 warning page呀。
我都無見到到喎,
係咪有人玩嘢呀,
可能根本唔關google事喎!
你有冇真係試過發新文呀? 睇吓係唔係真係唔得。
Thankyouguys！“係咪有人玩嘢呀” no lah....！
Even on the dashboard showed the ”Blog Locked“ message.
After logged in I needed to type in word verification for each move within the account.
In the meantime I shall wait for their reply patiently.
Take care!
Well I found this posting on the net, that meant I was/ am not alone, there are/ were many victims out there too....
Quoting:
Like many of y'all, I freaked when I found that my blog - http://XXXXXXXX.blogspot.com/ - was marked by the Google-Blogger 'bots as spam.
The "we'll delete your site in 20 days" note got my attention!
Searching through the queries from the many, many frustrated folks out there dealing with the same SNAFU, I noted an occasional fear: What will happen to all my posts if Blogger deletes my site?
Well, I'm waiting for Blogger to reinstate my pages.
In the meantime, I found a swell way to ensure that my entire site is safe.
Simply set up a Wordpress blog - http://wordpress.com/ - and marvel at the beauty of their quick and correct *import* feature.
I created a mirror site (private for now) and clicked on import
button, and smiled as all 400 posts (including comments) of my Blogger site migrated to my new Wordpress site without a hitch.
This is an improvement over Blogger's own export features. Indeed, when I created a file of my site using Blogger Draft's export tool, I found that most of my comments failed to survive the transition.
Wordpress's import feature? Worked like a charm.
So now I'm a lot less stressed. I'm still annoyed that I cannot update my Google Blogger site, which I do every working day. But I'm not worried that I'll lose all my files.
I still plan to stay with Blogger - once they clear me of their spam-
designation.
But I have a backup - just in case.
Worst case scenario? Well, Wordpress's features are pretty slick!
Remark from SPACE: MAY be you people should consider setting up a mirror site, otherwise one day you must lose all your past postings with Blogger.
OK my lunch time....!
ops! error...
should read : one day you MAY lose all your past postings with Blogger.
看來一定係BLOGSPOT搞錯,
唔係點有其他人有咁嘅反應吖,
你做咗後備就好,
否則真係好可惜!
有乜新進展,
請通知我們呀!
好了！ 一切回復正常了！ 謝天謝地。
yes!
yes!
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