「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

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Thursday, January 28, 2010

奧巴馬的首份國情諮文

奧巴馬的首份國情諮文



美國總統的『國情諮文』,英文是:State of the Union Address,是每一位美國總統,都在每年的一月重開國會參眾兩院,向國會及全國人民宣讀,除了美國國民留意之外,也因美國擁有全球最強大軍事武力,令到全世界注意,舉世觸目。


【維基百科】每年在美國國會,聯席會議召開之前,於美國國會大廈中的眾議院,總統發表的報告。這項報告,不僅僅包括國情分析,總統還會在報告中,對美國國會闡述他的立法議程,以及國家優先事項。這個報告從 1934年起,通常於一月份發表。

The State of the Union is an annual address presented by the President of the United States to the United States Congress. The address not only reports on the condition of the nation but also allows the president to outline his legislative agenda and national priorities to Congress.

The State of the Union is typically given before a joint session of the United States Congress and is held in the House of Representatives chamber at the United States Capitol.



2010年的 State of the Union Address 將於美國東岸週三發表。于發表之前,就已經有很多預測,但比發表諮文前,奧巴馬卻先提出措施,協助飽受打擊的中產家庭,度過難關,包括提高每年收入低於8萬5千美元家庭的子女免稅額; 增加16億美元協助在職父母照顧兒童,以及增加退休儲蓄稅務優惠等。另外,美聯社引述消息透露,奧巴馬將要求,從下個財政年度開始的三年,凍結部份國內項目的預算,控制赤字。


【明報專訊】國情咨文重點
●就業
撥出300億美元協助小企業,同時將對小企業實行稅務寬減,鼓勵招聘;透過推動出口,長線創造200萬個就業職位;強調政府刺激經濟方案年底前可再創造或保留150萬個職位

●貿易
推動未來5年內將出口增加1倍;提倡幫助農民和小企業提高出口,加強與亞洲國家的貿易關係

●金融改革
強調需實施「嚴肅的金融改革」,以建構健康的金融市場;不會讓說客組織扼殺金融改革法案

●醫療改革
呼籲國會不要放棄對醫改立法,否則會令更多美國人喪失醫療保障

●削減財赤
將國家安全、醫療和社會保障以外的部分政府開支凍結3年

●氣候
呼籲國會通過全面的能源和氣候法案,推動美國使用環保能源

●外交
宣布今年8月底前從伊拉克撤出所有戰鬥部隊;支持阿富汗政府提高執政能力、減少腐敗;警告朝鮮和伊朗不要在核問題上一意孤行


【明報社評】國情諮文:保護主義勢重來
時間最能磨練人,縱是美國總統亦無法避免~~殊上台後專橫跋扈,到任期最後一年變得謹小慎微;同樣地,上台前意氣風發的奧巴馬,一年後的今天變得謙虛誠懇,在1月27日的國情咨文發表之夜,奧巴馬軟化的口氣夾雜著歉疚,少了一分豪情壯志,多了一分滄桑世故。這恰如其分反映了美國在過去一年的跌宕起伏,以及奧巴馬對白宮前路的忐忑不安。

國情咨文是國會復會前夕,總統作為行政首長及三軍總司令對議員的國情報告,也可以說是美國總統向人民的匯報和前瞻。但愈來愈無新意的國情咨文,轟動效應大大不如前,完全比不上1930年代小羅斯福總統著名的「爐邊談話」——在風雨如晦的日子,小羅斯福激勵收音機旁數以千萬美國民眾心靈,鼓勵人們抖擻精神,挺過大蕭條。

700萬人失業 奧巴馬轉攻內政
縱是如此,奧巴馬這篇國情咨文仍有不少可堪咀嚼之處,70分鐘長的咨文,三分之二集中談論內政,當中一半專門講就業,去年上台後視為主打的外交,只在最後幾段輕輕帶過。毫無疑問,金融海嘯至今700萬國民失業,是奧巴馬就任首年民望僅有57%的核心原因,和以前的新科總統相比,不及六成的民望連「出色」也說不上。對於去年捋起衣袖準備改變美國的奧巴馬來說,一年過去,該是反省政策、望向未來的時候。

奧巴馬把精力集中在創造職位是現實使然,雖然總體經濟稍見起色,但10%的失業率高踞不下,特別今年是中期選舉年,奧巴馬如果不解決就業這一死結,民主黨今年必不會有好日子過。兩年前瘋魔美國社會的奧巴馬熱潮已經消散,具體反映在民望的下墮,以及聯儲局主席伯南克的連任提名在國會遇到的抗拒。伯南克最後雖獲參議院確認連任,但反對票高達30張,是有這個職位以來最多反對票的一次;加上早前麻省聯邦參議員補選,民主黨大熱倒灶,奧巴馬若未能在推動經濟交出成績,會直接影響2012年的總統大選成敗。

奧巴馬的就業大計是年底前創造或保留150萬個職位,又撥出300億美元協助中小企業,並承諾未來5年增加出口一倍。這些計劃能否立竿見影,關鍵是美國經濟是否全面復蘇,以及退巿計劃如何成功執行。美國經濟見底已是事實,問題是何時谷底回升,這當中涉及一些事態的發展:一是通脹會否重臨;二是當通脹重臨時,美國會否加息遏抑通脹。這是一柄雙刃劍,過去一年狂印鈔票救巿,過後通脹必然上升,美國向視通脹如洪水猛獸,1980年代,為了遏止通脹,聯邦基金利率一度攀上20厘水平,結果是通脹雖然受控,實體經濟卻大受打擊。

美應放寬出口限制 或重提人民幣匯率
奧巴馬在國情咨文的承諾還會面對不少困難,尤其是「出口長線創造200萬個職位,出口在5年內增加一倍」這段內容。眾所周知,美國出口以精密及高尖科技為主,例如民航機、超級電腦或環保生物科技等,這些高增值產品本來可以令美國出口貨額大增,客觀上能夠縮窄貿易逆差,但由於美國對出口這些產品有嚴格限制,而最亟欲添購此類產品的中國,卻由於美國諸多設限而無法大舉購入,現在的情景是一方是有貨不欲售、一方卻有錢難購置,際此全球經濟困頓唯獨中國欣欣向榮,美國要通過出口增加就業,應該研究放寬出口規限。

必須指出的是,奧巴馬在這篇情緒激昂的咨文裏強調「美國不能做阿二」,也提到出口和創造就業,但上任後一再說到的「美國不推行保護主義」承諾卻不復見。這絕不可能是奧巴馬或咨文撰稿人的遺漏,我們認為這是一個警號,是美國力求不會因為外國貨進口而流失職位的策略。事實上,過去幾個月,美國對中國多次施以反傾銷和反補貼行動,與奧巴馬去年上半年信誓旦旦的不支持保護主義漸行漸遠;在保障就業成為施政大方向下,類似行動未來只有增加而不會減少,更可能是美國與中國及其他主要貿易伙伴的衝突熱點。

另方面,由於奧巴馬確認出口可以創造就業,增加美貨出口將成為白宮爭取政績的著力點,也是國會議員向選民拉票的政綱。對於刺激出口,美國政壇一些人相信,動用貨幣手段,會比行政手段推動更有作用;今年4月,美國國會將舉行一年兩度的匯率評估,在通篇國情咨文都不離「出口、就業」而缺了「反對保護主義」之下,美方會否在人民幣匯率上有大動作,很值得留意。



這裡預留位置轉載“2010 State of the Union Address 國情諮文”。

國情諮文 State of the Union Address 2010 全文 Full Text
Madame Speaker, Vice President Biden, Members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow Americans:

Our Constitution declares that from time to time, the President shall give to Congress information about the state of our union. For two hundred and twenty years, our leaders have fulfilled this duty. They have done so during periods of prosperity and tranquility. And they have done so in the midst of war and depression; at moments of great strife and great struggle.

It's tempting to look back on these moments and assume that our progress was inevitable – that America was always destined to succeed. But when the Union was turned back at Bull Run and the Allies first landed at Omaha Beach, victory was very much in doubt. When the market crashed on Black Tuesday and civil rights marchers were beaten on Bloody Sunday, the future was anything but certain. These were times that tested the courage of our convictions, and the strength of our union. And despite all our divisions and disagreements; our hesitations and our fears; America prevailed because we chose to move forward as one nation, and one people.

Again, we are tested. And again, we must answer history's call.

One year ago, I took office amid two wars, an economy rocked by severe recession, a financial system on the verge of collapse, and a government deeply in debt. Experts from across the political spectrum warned that if we did not act, we might face a second depression. So we acted – immediately and aggressively. And one year later, the worst of the storm has passed.

But the devastation remains. One in ten Americans still cannot find work. Many businesses have shuttered. Home values have declined. Small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard. For those who had already known poverty, life has become that much harder.

This recession has also compounded the burdens that America's families have been dealing with for decades – the burden of working harder and longer for less; of being unable to save enough to retire or help kids with college.

So I know the anxieties that are out there right now. They're not new. These struggles are the reason I ran for President. These struggles are what I've witnessed for years in places like Elkhart, Indiana and Galesburg, Illinois. I hear about them in the letters that I read each night. The toughest to read are those written by children – asking why they have to move from their home, or when their mom or dad will be able to go back to work.

For these Americans and so many others, change has not come fast enough. Some are frustrated; some are angry. They don't understand why it seems like bad behavior on Wall Street is rewarded but hard work on Main Street isn't; or why Washington has been unable or unwilling to solve any of our problems. They are tired of the partisanship and the shouting and the pettiness. They know we can't afford it. Not now.

So we face big and difficult challenges. And what the American people hope – what they deserve – is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work through our differences; to overcome the numbing weight of our politics. For while the people who sent us here have different backgrounds, different stories and different beliefs, the anxieties they face are the same. The aspirations they hold are shared. A job that pays the bills. A chance to get ahead. Most of all, the ability to give their children a better life.

You know what else they share? They share a stubborn resilience in the face of adversity. After one of the most difficult years in our history, they remain busy building cars and teaching kids; starting businesses and going back to school. They're coaching little league and helping their neighbors. As one woman wrote me, "We are strained but hopeful, struggling but encouraged."

It is because of this spirit – this great decency and great strength – that I have never been more hopeful about America's future than I am tonight. Despite our hardships, our union is strong. We do not give up. We do not quit. We do not allow fear or division to break our spirit. In this new decade, it's time the American people get a government that matches their decency; that embodies their strength.

And tonight, I'd like to talk about how together, we can deliver on that promise.

It begins with our economy.

Our most urgent task upon taking office was to shore up the same banks that helped cause this crisis. It was not easy to do. And if there's one thing that has unified Democrats and Republicans, it's that we all hated the bank bailout. I hated it. You hated it. It was about as popular as a root canal.

But when I ran for President, I promised I wouldn't just do what was popular – I would do what was necessary. And if we had allowed the meltdown of the financial system, unemployment might be double what it is today. More businesses would certainly have closed. More homes would have surely been lost.

So I supported the last administration's efforts to create the financial rescue program. And when we took the program over, we made it more transparent and accountable. As a result, the markets are now stabilized, and we have recovered most of the money we spent on the banks.

To recover the rest, I have proposed a fee on the biggest banks. I know Wall Street isn't keen on this idea, but if these firms can afford to hand out big bonuses again, they can afford a modest fee to pay back the taxpayers who rescued them in their time of need.

As we stabilized the financial system, we also took steps to get our economy growing again, save as many jobs as possible, and help Americans who had become unemployed.

That's why we extended or increased unemployment benefits for more than 18 million Americans; made health insurance 65% cheaper for families who get their coverage through COBRA; and passed 25 different tax cuts.

Let me repeat: we cut taxes. We cut taxes for 95% of working families. We cut taxes for small businesses. We cut taxes for first-time homebuyers. We cut taxes for parents trying to care for their children. We cut taxes for 8 million Americans paying for college. As a result, millions of Americans had more to spend on gas, and food, and other necessities, all of which helped businesses keep more workers. And we haven't raised income taxes by a single dime on a single person. Not a single dime.

Because of the steps we took, there are about two million Americans working right now who would otherwise be unemployed. 200,000 work in construction and clean energy. 300,000 are teachers and other education workers. Tens of thousands are cops, firefighters, correctional officers, and first responders. And we are on track to add another one and a half million jobs to this total by the end of the year.

The plan that has made all of this possible, from the tax cuts to the jobs, is the Recovery Act. That's right – the Recovery Act, also known as the Stimulus Bill. Economists on the left and the right say that this bill has helped saved jobs and avert disaster. But you don't have to take their word for it.

Talk to the small business in Phoenix that will triple its workforce because of the Recovery Act.

Talk to the window manufacturer in Philadelphia who said he used to be skeptical about the Recovery Act, until he had to add two more work shifts just because of the business it created.

Talk to the single teacher raising two kids who was told by her principal in the last week of school that because of the Recovery Act, she wouldn't be laid off after all.

There are stories like this all across America. And after two years of recession, the economy is growing again. Retirement funds have started to gain back some of their value. Businesses are beginning to invest again, and slowly some are starting to hire again.

But I realize that for every success story, there are other stories, of men and women who wake up with the anguish of not knowing where their next paycheck will come from; who send out resumes week after week and hear nothing in response. That is why jobs must be our number one focus in 2010, and that is why I am calling for a new jobs bill tonight.

Now, the true engine of job creation in this country will always be America's businesses. But government can create the conditions necessary for businesses to expand and hire more workers.

We should start where most new jobs do – in small businesses, companies that begin when an entrepreneur takes a chance on a dream, or a worker decides its time she became her own boss.

Through sheer grit and determination, these companies have weathered the recession and are ready to grow. But when you talk to small business owners in places like Allentown, Pennsylvania or Elyria, Ohio, you find out that even though banks on Wall Street are lending again, they are mostly lending to bigger companies. But financing remains difficult for small business owners across the country.

So tonight, I'm proposing that we take $30 billion of the money Wall Street banks have repaid and use it to help community banks give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat. I am also proposing a new small business tax credit – one that will go to over one million small businesses who hire new workers or raise wages. While we're at it, let's also eliminate all capital gains taxes on small business investment; and provide a tax incentive for all businesses, large and small, to invest in new plants and equipment.

Next, we can put Americans to work today building the infrastructure of tomorrow. From the first railroads to the interstate highway system, our nation has always been built to compete. There's no reason Europe or China should have the fastest trains, or the new factories that manufacture clean energy products.

Tomorrow, I'll visit Tampa, Florida, where workers will soon break ground on a new high-speed railroad funded by the Recovery Act. There are projects like that all across this country that will create jobs and help our nation move goods, services, and information. We should put more Americans to work building clean energy facilities, and give rebates to Americans who make their homes more energy efficient, which supports clean energy jobs. And to encourage these and other businesses to stay within our borders, it's time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs in the United States of America.

The House has passed a jobs bill that includes some of these steps. As the first order of business this year, I urge the Senate to do the same. People are out of work. They are hurting. They need our help. And I want a jobs bill on my desk without delay.

But the truth is, these steps still won't make up for the seven million jobs we've lost over the last two years. The only way to move to full employment is to lay a new foundation for long-term economic growth, and finally address the problems that America's families have confronted for years.

We cannot afford another so-called economic "expansion" like the one from last decade – what some call the "lost decade" – where jobs grew more slowly than during any prior expansion; where the income of the average American household declined while the cost of health care and tuition reached record highs; where prosperity was built on a housing bubble and financial speculation.

From the day I took office, I have been told that addressing our larger challenges is too ambitious – that such efforts would be too contentious, that our political system is too gridlocked, and that we should just put things on hold for awhile.

For those who make these claims, I have one simple question:

How long should we wait? How long should America put its future on hold?

You see, Washington has been telling us to wait for decades, even as the problems have grown worse. Meanwhile, China's not waiting to revamp its economy. Germany's not waiting. India's not waiting. These nations aren't standing still. These nations aren't playing for second place. They're putting more emphasis on math and science. They're rebuilding their infrastructure. They are making serious investments in clean energy because they want those jobs.

Well I do not accept second-place for the United States of America. As hard as it may be, as uncomfortable and contentious as the debates may be, it's time to get serious about fixing the problems that are hampering our growth.

One place to start is serious financial reform. Look, I am not interested in punishing banks, I'm interested in protecting our economy. A strong, healthy financial market makes it possible for businesses to access credit and create new jobs. It channels the savings of families into investments that raise incomes. But that can only happen if we guard against the same recklessness that nearly brought down our entire economy.

We need to make sure consumers and middle-class families have the information they need to make financial decisions. We can't allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy.

The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back.

Next, we need to encourage American innovation. Last year, we made the largest investment in basic research funding in history – an investment that could lead to the world's cheapest solar cells or treatment that kills cancer cells but leaves healthy ones untouched. And no area is more ripe for such innovation than energy. You can see the results of last year's investment in clean energy – in the North Carolina company that will create 1200 jobs nationwide helping to make advanced batteries; or in the California business that will put 1,000 people to work making solar panels.

But to create more of these clean energy jobs, we need more production, more efficiency, more incentives. That means building a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants in this country. It means making tough decisions about opening new offshore areas for oil and gas development. It means continued investment in advanced biofuels and clean coal technologies. And yes, it means passing a comprehensive energy and climate bill with incentives that will finally make clean energy the profitable kind of energy in America.

I am grateful to the House for passing such a bill last year. This year, I am eager to help advance the bipartisan effort in the Senate. I know there have been questions about whether we can afford such changes in a tough economy; and I know that there are those who disagree with the overwhelming scientific evidence on climate change. But even if you doubt the evidence, providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future – because the nation that leads the clean energy economy will be the nation that leads the global economy. And America must be that nation.

Third, we need to export more of our goods. Because the more products we make and sell to other countries, the more jobs we support right here in America. So tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America. To help meet this goal, we're launching a National Export Initiative that will help farmers and small businesses increase their exports, and reform export controls consistent with national security.

We have to seek new markets aggressively, just as our competitors are. If America sits on the sidelines while other nations sign trade deals, we will lose the chance to create jobs on our shores. But realizing those benefits also means enforcing those agreements so our trading partners play by the rules. And that's why we will continue to shape a Doha trade agreement that opens global markets, and why we will strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, Panama, and Colombia.

Fourth, we need to invest in the skills and education of our people.

This year, we have broken through the stalemate between left and right by launching a national competition to improve our schools. The idea here is simple: instead of rewarding failure, we only reward success. Instead of funding the status quo, we only invest in reform – reform that raises student achievement, inspires students to excel in math and science, and turns around failing schools that steal the future of too many young Americans, from rural communities to inner-cities. In the 21st century, one of the best anti-poverty programs is a world-class education. In this country, the success of our children cannot depend more on where they live than their potential.

When we renew the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, we will work with Congress to expand these reforms to all fifty states. Still, in this economy, a high school diploma no longer guarantees a good job. I urge the Senate to follow the House and pass a bill that will revitalize our community colleges, which are a career pathway to the children of so many working families. To make college more affordable, this bill will finally end the unwarranted taxpayer-subsidies that go to banks for student loans. Instead, let's take that money and give families a $10,000 tax credit for four years of college and increase Pell Grants. And let's tell another one million students that when they graduate, they will be required to pay only ten percent of their income on student loans, and all of their debt will be forgiven after twenty years – and forgiven after ten years if they choose a career in public service. Because in the United States of America, no one should go broke because they chose to go to college. And it's time for colleges and universities to get serious about cutting their own costs – because they too have a responsibility to help solve this problem.

Now, the price of college tuition is just one of the burdens facing the middle-class. That's why last year I asked Vice President Biden to chair a task force on Middle-Class Families. That's why we're nearly doubling the child care tax credit, and making it easier to save for retirement by giving every worker access to a retirement account and expanding the tax credit for those who start a nest egg. That's why we're working to lift the value of a family's single largest investment – their home. The steps we took last year to shore up the housing market have allowed millions of Americans to take out new loans and save an average of $1,500 on mortgage payments. This year, we will step up re-financing so that homeowners can move into more affordable mortgages. And it is precisely to relieve the burden on middle-class families that we still need health insurance reform.

Now let's be clear – I did not choose to tackle this issue to get some legislative victory under my belt. And by now it should be fairly obvious that I didn't take on health care because it was good politics.

I took on health care because of the stories I've heard from Americans with pre-existing conditions whose lives depend on getting coverage; patients who've been denied coverage; and families – even those with insurance – who are just one illness away from financial ruin.

After nearly a century of trying, we are closer than ever to bringing more security to the lives of so many Americans. The approach we've taken would protect every American from the worst practices of the insurance industry. It would give small businesses and uninsured Americans a chance to choose an affordable health care plan in a competitive market. It would require every insurance plan to cover preventive care. And by the way, I want to acknowledge our First Lady, Michelle Obama, who this year is creating a national movement to tackle the epidemic of childhood obesity and make our kids healthier.

Our approach would preserve the right of Americans who have insurance to keep their doctor and their plan. It would reduce costs and premiums for millions of families and businesses. And according to the Congressional Budget Office – the independent organization that both parties have cited as the official scorekeeper for Congress – our approach would bring down the deficit by as much as $1 trillion over the next two decades.

Still, this is a complex issue, and the longer it was debated, the more skeptical people became. I take my share of the blame for not explaining it more clearly to the American people. And I know that with all the lobbying and horse-trading, this process left most Americans wondering what's in it for them.

But I also know this problem is not going away. By the time I'm finished speaking tonight, more Americans will have lost their health insurance. Millions will lose it this year. Our deficit will grow. Premiums will go up. Patients will be denied the care they need. Small business owners will continue to drop coverage altogether. I will not walk away from these Americans, and neither should the people in this chamber.

As temperatures cool, I want everyone to take another look at the plan we've proposed. There's a reason why many doctors, nurses, and health care experts who know our system best consider this approach a vast improvement over the status quo. But if anyone from either party has a better approach that will bring down premiums, bring down the deficit, cover the uninsured, strengthen Medicare for seniors, and stop insurance company abuses, let me know. Here's what I ask of Congress, though: Do not walk away from reform. Not now. Not when we are so close. Let us find a way to come together and finish the job for the American people.

Now, even as health care reform would reduce our deficit, it's not enough to dig us out of a massive fiscal hole in which we find ourselves. It's a challenge that makes all others that much harder to solve, and one that's been subject to a lot of political posturing.

So let me start the discussion of government spending by setting the record straight. At the beginning of the last decade, America had a budget surplus of over $200 billion. By the time I took office, we had a one year deficit of over $1 trillion and projected deficits of $8 trillion over the next decade. Most of this was the result of not paying for two wars, two tax cuts, and an expensive prescription drug program. On top of that, the effects of the recession put a $3 trillion hole in our budget. That was before I walked in the door.

Now if we had taken office in ordinary times, I would have liked nothing more than to start bringing down the deficit. But we took office amid a crisis, and our efforts to prevent a second Depression have added another $1 trillion to our national debt.

I am absolutely convinced that was the right thing to do. But families across the country are tightening their belts and making tough decisions. The federal government should do the same. So tonight, I'm proposing specific steps to pay for the $1 trillion that it took to rescue the economy last year.

Starting in 2011, we are prepared to freeze government spending for three years. Spending related to our national security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will not be affected. But all other discretionary government programs will. Like any cash-strapped family, we will work within a budget to invest in what we need and sacrifice what we don't. And if I have to enforce this discipline by veto, I will.

We will continue to go through the budget line by line to eliminate programs that we can't afford and don't work. We've already identified $20 billion in savings for next year. To help working families, we will extend our middle-class tax cuts. But at a time of record deficits, we will not continue tax cuts for oil companies, investment fund managers, and those making over $250,000 a year. We just can't afford it.

Now, even after paying for what we spent on my watch, we will still face the massive deficit we had when I took office. More importantly, the cost of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will continue to skyrocket. That's why I've called for a bipartisan, Fiscal Commission, modeled on a proposal by Republican Judd Gregg and Democrat Kent Conrad. This can't be one of those Washington gimmicks that lets us pretend we solved a problem. The Commission will have to provide a specific set of solutions by a certain deadline. Yesterday, the Senate blocked a bill that would have created this commission. So I will issue an executive order that will allow us to go forward, because I refuse to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans. And when the vote comes tomorrow, the Senate should restore the pay-as-you-go law that was a big reason why we had record surpluses in the 1990s.

I know that some in my own party will argue that we cannot address the deficit or freeze government spending when so many are still hurting. I agree, which is why this freeze will not take effect until next year, when the economy is stronger. But understand – if we do not take meaningful steps to rein in our debt, it could damage our markets, increase the cost of borrowing, and jeopardize our recovery – all of which could have an even worse effect on our job growth and family incomes.

From some on the right, I expect we'll hear a different argument – that if we just make fewer investments in our people, extend tax cuts for wealthier Americans, eliminate more regulations, and maintain the status quo on health care, our deficits will go away. The problem is, that's what we did for eight years. That's what helped lead us into this crisis. It's what helped lead to these deficits. And we cannot do it again.

Rather than fight the same tired battles that have dominated Washington for decades, it's time to try something new. Let's invest in our people without leaving them a mountain of debt. Let's meet our responsibility to the citizens who sent us here. Let's try common sense.

To do that, we have to recognize that we face more than a deficit of dollars right now. We face a deficit of trust – deep and corrosive doubts about how Washington works that have been growing for years. To close that credibility gap we must take action on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue to end the outsized influence of lobbyists; to do our work openly; and to give our people the government they deserve.

That's what I came to Washington to do. That's why – for the first time in history – my Administration posts our White House visitors online. And that's why we've excluded lobbyists from policy-making jobs or seats on federal boards and commissions.

But we can't stop there. It's time to require lobbyists to disclose each contact they make on behalf of a client with my Administration or Congress. And it's time to put strict limits on the contributions that lobbyists give to candidates for federal office. Last week, the Supreme Court reversed a century of law to open the floodgates for special interests – including foreign corporations – to spend without limit in our elections. Well I don't think American elections should be bankrolled by America's most powerful interests, or worse, by foreign entities. They should be decided by the American people, and that's why I'm urging Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to right this wrong.

I'm also calling on Congress to continue down the path of earmark reform. You have trimmed some of this spending and embraced some meaningful change. But restoring the public trust demands more. For example, some members of Congress post some earmark requests online. Tonight, I'm calling on Congress to publish all earmark requests on a single website before there's a vote so that the American people can see how their money is being spent.

Of course, none of these reforms will even happen if we don't also reform how we work with one another.

Now, I am not naïve. I never thought the mere fact of my election would usher in peace, harmony, and some post-partisan era. I knew that both parties have fed divisions that are deeply entrenched. And on some issues, there are simply philosophical differences that will always cause us to part ways. These disagreements, about the role of government in our lives, about our national priorities and our national security, have been taking place for over two hundred years. They are the very essence of our democracy.

But what frustrates the American people is a Washington where every day is Election Day. We cannot wage a perpetual campaign where the only goal is to see who can get the most embarrassing headlines about their opponent – a belief that if you lose, I win. Neither party should delay or obstruct every single bill just because they can. The confirmation of well-qualified public servants should not be held hostage to the pet projects or grudges of a few individual Senators. Washington may think that saying anything about the other side, no matter how false, is just part of the game. But it is precisely such politics that has stopped either party from helping the American people. Worse yet, it is sowing further division among our citizens and further distrust in our government.

So no, I will not give up on changing the tone of our politics. I know it's an election year. And after last week, it is clear that campaign fever has come even earlier than usual. But we still need to govern. To Democrats, I would remind you that we still have the largest majority in decades, and the people expect us to solve some problems, not run for the hills. And if the Republican leadership is going to insist that sixty votes in the Senate are required to do any business at all in this town, then the responsibility to govern is now yours as well. Just saying no to everything may be good short-term politics, but it's not leadership. We were sent here to serve our citizens, not our ambitions. So let's show the American people that we can do it together. This week, I'll be addressing a meeting of the House Republicans. And I would like to begin monthly meetings with both the Democratic and Republican leadership. I know you can't wait.

Throughout our history, no issue has united this country more than our security. Sadly, some of the unity we felt after 9/11 has dissipated. We can argue all we want about who's to blame for this, but I am not interested in re-litigating the past. I know that all of us love this country. All of us are committed to its defense. So let's put aside the schoolyard taunts about who is tough. Let's reject the false choice between protecting our people and upholding our values. Let's leave behind the fear and division, and do what it takes to defend our nation and forge a more hopeful future – for America and the world.

That is the work we began last year. Since the day I took office, we have renewed our focus on the terrorists who threaten our nation. We have made substantial investments in our homeland security and disrupted plots that threatened to take American lives. We are filling unacceptable gaps revealed by the failed Christmas attack, with better airline security, and swifter action on our intelligence. We have prohibited torture and strengthened partnerships from the Pacific to South Asia to the Arabian Peninsula. And in the last year, hundreds of Al Qaeda's fighters and affiliates, including many senior leaders, have been captured or killed – far more than in 2008.

In Afghanistan, we are increasing our troops and training Afghan Security Forces so they can begin to take the lead in July of 2011, and our troops can begin to come home. We will reward good governance, reduce corruption, and support the rights of all Afghans – men and women alike. We are joined by allies and partners who have increased their own commitment, and who will come together tomorrow in London to reaffirm our common purpose. There will be difficult days ahead. But I am confident we will succeed.

As we take the fight to al Qaeda, we are responsibly leaving Iraq to its people. As a candidate, I promised that I would end this war, and that is what I am doing as President. We will have all of our combat troops out of Iraq by the end of this August. We will support the Iraqi government as they hold elections, and continue to partner with the Iraqi people to promote regional peace and prosperity. But make no mistake: this war is ending, and all of our troops are coming home.

Tonight, all of our men and women in uniform -- in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the world – must know that they have our respect, our gratitude, and our full support. And just as they must have the resources they need in war, we all have a responsibility to support them when they come home. That is why we made the largest increase in investments for veterans in decades. That is why we are building a 21st century VA. And that is why Michelle has joined with Jill Biden to forge a national commitment to support military families.

Even as we prosecute two wars, we are also confronting perhaps the greatest danger to the American people – the threat of nuclear weapons. I have embraced the vision of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan through a strategy that reverses the spread of these weapons, and seeks a world without them. To reduce our stockpiles and launchers, while ensuring our deterrent, the United States and Russia are completing negotiations on the farthest-reaching arms control treaty in nearly two decades. And at April's Nuclear Security Summit, we will bring forty-four nations together behind a clear goal: securing all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world in four years, so that they never fall into the hands of terrorists.

These diplomatic efforts have also strengthened our hand in dealing with those nations that insist on violating international agreements in pursuit of these weapons. That is why North Korea now faces increased isolation, and stronger sanctions – sanctions that are being vigorously enforced. That is why the international community is more united, and the Islamic Republic of Iran is more isolated. And as Iran's leaders continue to ignore their obligations, there should be no doubt: they, too, will face growing consequences.

That is the leadership that we are providing – engagement that advances the common security and prosperity of all people. We are working through the G-20 to sustain a lasting global recovery. We are working with Muslim communities around the world to promote science, education and innovation. We have gone from a bystander to a leader in the fight against climate change. We are helping developing countries to feed themselves, and continuing the fight against HIV/AIDS. And we are launching a new initiative that will give us the capacity to respond faster and more effectively to bio-terrorism or an infectious disease – a plan that will counter threats at home, and strengthen public health abroad.

As we have for over sixty years, America takes these actions because our destiny is connected to those beyond our shores. But we also do it because it is right. That is why, as we meet here tonight, over 10,000 Americans are working with many nations to help the people of Haiti recover and rebuild. That is why we stand with the girl who yearns to go to school in Afghanistan; we support the human rights of the women marching through the streets of Iran; and we advocate for the young man denied a job by corruption in Guinea. For America must always stand on the side of freedom and human dignity.

Abroad, America's greatest source of strength has always been our ideals. The same is true at home. We find unity in our incredible diversity, drawing on the promise enshrined in our Constitution: the notion that we are all created equal, that no matter who you are or what you look like, if you abide by the law you should be protected by it; that if you adhere to our common values you should be treated no different than anyone else.

We must continually renew this promise. My Administration has a Civil Rights Division that is once again prosecuting civil rights violations and employment discrimination. We finally strengthened our laws to protect against crimes driven by hate. This year, I will work with Congress and our military to finally repeal the law that denies gay Americans the right to serve the country they love because of who they are. We are going to crack down on violations of equal pay laws – so that women get equal pay for an equal day's work. And we should continue the work of fixing our broken immigration system – to secure our borders, enforce our laws, and ensure that everyone who plays by the rules can contribute to our economy and enrich our nations.

In the end, it is our ideals, our values, that built America – values that allowed us to forge a nation made up of immigrants from every corner of the globe; values that drive our citizens still. Every day, Americans meet their responsibilities to their families and their employers. Time and again, they lend a hand to their neighbors and give back to their country. They take pride in their labor, and are generous in spirit. These aren't Republican values or Democratic values they're living by; business values or labor values. They are American values.

Unfortunately, too many of our citizens have lost faith that our biggest institutions – our corporations, our media, and yes, our government – still reflect these same values. Each of these institutions are full of honorable men and women doing important work that helps our country prosper. But each time a CEO rewards himself for failure, or a banker puts the rest of us at risk for his own selfish gain, people's doubts grow. Each time lobbyists game the system or politicians tear each other down instead of lifting this country up, we lose faith. The more that TV pundits reduce serious debates into silly arguments, and big issues into sound bites, our citizens turn away.

No wonder there's so much cynicism out there.

No wonder there's so much disappointment.

I campaigned on the promise of change – change we can believe in, the slogan went. And right now, I know there are many Americans who aren't sure if they still believe we can change – or at least, that I can deliver it.

But remember this – I never suggested that change would be easy, or that I can do it alone. Democracy in a nation of three hundred million people can be noisy and messy and complicated. And when you try to do big things and make big changes, it stirs passions and controversy. That's just how it is.

Those of us in public office can respond to this reality by playing it safe and avoid telling hard truths. We can do what's necessary to keep our poll numbers high, and get through the next election instead of doing what's best for the next generation.

But I also know this: if people had made that decision fifty years ago or one hundred years ago or two hundred years ago, we wouldn't be here tonight. The only reason we are is because generations of Americans were unafraid to do what was hard; to do what was needed even when success was uncertain; to do what it took to keep the dream of this nation alive for their children and grandchildren.

Our administration has had some political setbacks this year, and some of them were deserved. But I wake up every day knowing that they are nothing compared to the setbacks that families all across this country have faced this year. And what keeps me going – what keeps me fighting – is that despite all these setbacks, that spirit of determination and optimism – that fundamental decency that has always been at the core of the American people – lives on.

It lives on in the struggling small business owner who wrote to me of his company, "None of us," he said, "…are willing to consider, even slightly, that we might fail."

It lives on in the woman who said that even though she and her neighbors have felt the pain of recession, "We are strong. We are resilient. We are American."

It lives on in the 8-year old boy in Louisiana, who just sent me his allowance and asked if I would give it to the people of Haiti. And it lives on in all the Americans who've dropped everything to go some place they've never been and pull people they've never known from rubble, prompting chants of "U.S.A.! U.S.A.! U.S.A!" when another life was saved.

The spirit that has sustained this nation for more than two centuries lives on in you, its people.

We have finished a difficult year. We have come through a difficult decade. But a new year has come. A new decade stretches before us. We don't quit. I don't quit. Let's seize this moment – to start anew, to carry the dream forward, and to strengthen our union once more.

Thank you. God Bless You. And God Bless the United States of America.



網上有 CNN 直播,并可以欣賞美國人的“鼓掌文化“,跟中國雙比也不遑多讓。當然有別于中國式的”鼓掌“。美國式的演說鼓掌,會在適當時候,由專人帶領齊齊站起來,站立著鼓掌。


做了剛好一年總統的”巴諾胡辛奧巴馬“,他已經飽飽地嘗盡“華盛頓politics 政治生態”,Change 改變改革改善,談何容易呢?去年 奧巴馬 很厭惡的『說客 Lobbyists』制度,依然是華盛頓政治的一環,尚未能改掉,醫保改革 public options 名存實亡,民望由七成跌至五成,參議院失去六十席的優勢,伯南克連任不穩。


無疑 奧巴馬是一位很出色出眾的演說者,他抑揚頓挫,他慷概激昂,描繪美好的愿景 Vision,聽時確實能振奮人心,可惜到做時又是另一番景象。今次的《國情咨文 State of the Union Address》,會有何新意呢?

【星洲日報】奧巴馬今次的國情咨文,將會把先前的“競選口號”:
『是的,我們辦得到』(Yes, we can),改成『是的,我明白』(Yes, I get it),表達他瞭解民怨所在。




伸延閱覽:
白宮發出的《國情咨文》新聞原稿 New York Times
奧巴馬國情諮文重點 雅虎新聞網
國情諮文:保護主義勢重來 雅虎新聞網
奧巴馬國情諮文重點 大紀元
奧巴馬國情諮文重點 香港文匯報
奧巴馬抗拒平庸寧可不連任做好總統『一任足矣!』 星洲日報
News results for Obama state of the union Google Search
奧巴馬將於美國週三發表國情咨文的相關新聞 谷歌新聞搜尋
國情諮文 State of the Union Address 維基百科



Wednesday, January 27, 2010

沒有永遠的敵友


民望由七成跌至五成,參議院失去六十席的優勢,醫保改革 public options 名存實亡,伯南克連任不穩,等等壞消息。週日的明報社評:
奧巴馬入主白宮一年

【明報社評】對美國總統奧巴馬來說,2010年的1月20日是上任一周年,但顯然沒有值得慶祝之處~~他的民望由去年上任時的近七成跌至五成,麻省聯邦參議員補選輸給共和黨,醫保大計或會因此延誤甚至胎死腹中。去年在金融海嘯裏上台時,奧巴馬被認為可能在美國歷史上與林肯、小羅斯福並列的「偉大總統」,一年過去,如今卻遭調侃是與甘迺迪同一檔次,更有說他可能是另一個卡特。

外交扭轉小布殊劣績 溝通不足醫保阻力大
美國總統至少可以做4年,如今以奧巴馬四分之一的總體工作表現評說,也許言之過早。奧巴馬上台時世界局勢或美國形勢,都是二戰以來最艱困的日子,金融海嘯掀翻美國經濟,幾百萬人頓失工作,二戰之後雄踞全球60年的金元帝國在海嘯面前不堪一擊;伊拉克和阿富汗兩場戰爭把美軍拖死在中東,從內而外,對奧巴馬這個只有聯邦參議員從政經驗的一年級生來說,遇上的是幾十年來最惡劣的環境。

我們毋須像共和黨那樣吹毛求疵,奧巴馬面對兩大危機,果斷出手:拋出7000億美元刺激經濟方案,放下身段要求中國大購美債,支撐當時奄奄一息的美國經濟;除了阿富汗增兵為人詬病,奧巴馬結束在伊拉克駐軍有進展、扭轉小布殊在波蘭和捷克的導彈防禦政策,今天的美國比起小布殊年代的美國,在國際上不至於那樣惹人討厭。

奧巴馬民望下跌的核心在於內政事務,這亦是美國在踏入奧巴馬年代第二個年頭之際,外交出現新走向的背景原因。2008年大選期間,奧巴馬以懾人魅力壓倒麥凱恩,以美國歷史上首位黑人總統的榮光入主白宮,但魅力是一種不斷貶值的資產,必須恒常添注新成就才能持續下去。

美國民眾對奧巴馬救巿和嚴懲華爾街大鱷沒有反感,然而在醫保計劃上,奧巴馬決心撐下去,結果在與美國老百姓溝通不多的情况下,被共和黨批評是大政府的危險舉措。美國百姓在列根年代學了一句話「政府才是問題」(government is the problem),認定政府不應介入的觀念根深蒂固,奧巴馬如何從美國社會此一對政府的簡單認知跳出來,是他能否在內政上得分的關鍵。

可是,奧巴馬沒有做好溝通工作,上情不能下達,下情也難上達,共和黨人也因為黨派之見而橫生阻撓,麻省聯邦參議員補選由共和黨人布朗爆冷勝出,在於民主黨 沒有做好溝通工作,卻不惜一切強力推行醫保計劃,難免令人啟生疑竇,這便是布朗在民主黨老巢麻省勝出的原因。

中國古語有云,「欲速則不達」,克林頓任內曾由第一夫人希拉里推動醫療改革,最終鎩羽而回,克林頓總結原因,便是太過急進,其次是沒有想到共和黨有大量選民支持。奧巴馬不信邪,認為兩院控制權都在民主黨手裏,投票必然過關,卻忽略金融海嘯後心態趨保守的老百姓。此外,部分民主黨人出言不遜,說要在布朗宣誓就任前強推醫保法案過關,這些缺乏政治智慧的說話,只會令通過法案的道路更加難行。

上星期,奧巴馬接受美國廣播公司專訪,承認工作有不足,尤其是與社會溝通這方面。這是一樁好事,至低限度,奧巴馬明白民望下跌的核心原因。但他對醫保大計依然雄心不減,決心要推行到底,由於眾議院早前已通過法案,參議院將成為下一個戰場,奧巴馬如何在新的一年不再靠吃個人政治魅力老本推動醫保大計,是成敗所在。

政治學有一句話:外交是內政的延續,奧巴馬內政上受阻,要交出施政成績單,可能會在外交上搞些動作。俄羅斯 此刻正韜光養晦,伊拉克和阿富汗已在掌控,餘下的便是中國。美國對中國的態度,在奧巴馬任期首年前後截然不同~~甫上任時是金融海嘯最猛烈時刻,美國得中國購美債始喘一口氣,奧巴馬內閣赴華絡繹於途,財長蓋特納到國務卿希拉里,都在訪華時秀一兩句漢語或中國成語,奧巴馬更三番四次表示不搞貿易保護主義。

中美蜜月期結束 選舉年拉票影響對華態度
可是,中美這段蜜月期,到了去年底哥本哈根氣候峰會後遽變,美國批評中國拖後腿,美方貿易保護主義措施一再出台,希拉里上周四發表網絡自由論,外交刊物《外交政策》質疑這是不是網絡戰爭的來臨,一年前外間看來如膠似漆的中美關係亮起了紅燈。

中美關係是否迅速變壞,應要等待更多實證,但奧巴馬政府目前確是對中國步步進逼,從賣武器給台灣 以至替Google撐腰,美國對中國的偏向強硬姿態,令人懷疑這是否奧巴馬內政不振的延續。

不論民主黨抑或共和黨當家,美國外交政策長期以來有一種傾向,即是以某一集團或國家為潛在目標,冷戰年代的目標是中蘇等社會主義國家,其後是恐怖主義,奧巴馬會否以中國取而代之,值得觀察。誠然,從意識形態來說,中美是對手而非朋友,如今冷戰灰飛煙滅,經濟利益抬頭,過去30年中美關係縱有波折,最終俱以雙方最大利益為依歸,不致擦槍走火。

今天中美經濟互補性強,中國雖然強調發展內需,出口仍是拉動經濟的火車頭,美國也有需要進入中國巿場,若雙方都視對方為敵人,只會落得兩敗俱傷。在這方面,奧巴馬有一個參考對象:上一任民主黨籍的美國總統克林頓,就把中美政治和經濟分家,既可照樣批評中國人權狀况,又保持交往渠道,從而在一定程度上影響中國的人權情况。

今年是美國中期選舉年,內政是主打議題,奧巴馬內政未見亮麗,外交或是他用以轉移視線、爭取得分的一張牌。也由於此,中美關係今年有極大可能成為美國內政爭逐的戰場,從希拉里公開敦促北京徹查黑客襲 Google的高姿態,顯然,這刻在美國眼中,中國不是盟友,而是意識形態上的對手。



奧巴馬被貶低為同“花生總統”~卡達,同一班馬,同一級數,即是說他祇可當一任總統。尼克遜的“水門事件”,福特走馬上任當總統,美國民眾背棄“共和黨”,寧願選一位“清潔”的新人,曾當喬治亞州州長民主黨的 杰美卡達,當新一屆的總統,可惜卡達他太過乾凈,四年之後,就被荷里活的二線演員:朗奴列根 取代,共和黨人再入主白宮。


做政客若太過乾凈,有可能對付,在污泥裡打滾多年的“蠱惑佬”嗎?在淌水混了多年“蠱惑婆”嗎?臺灣的國民黨小馬哥,馬總統攪到焦頭爛額,不用細數。結論是”乾凈“並不能帶來”成功“,『水至清則無魚、人至察則無徒。』


美國的巴諾胡幸奧巴馬,祇做過兩年多的參議員,憑著“Change~改變、改革、改善!“入主了白宮的”橢圓辦公室“,積極推行一連串 Changes,但美國多數人民普偏認為,改得太急太大太貴,影響了既得利益者。真是成也是 Change,但若判成:敗也是 Change! 是否言之過早呢?


如今奧巴馬有難,為了轉移民眾視線,展開強硬對華,先與”谷歌“互扯貓尾,一個唱一個和,還出動克太希拉莉。中國祇是作出回應,未有惡言相向,中南海國務院諸公和華盛頓交往三十多年,已深諳”沒有永遠的敵友“之道。


後記:抗拒平庸寧可不連任做好總統『一任足矣!』
【星洲日報】近日仕途拉警報的美國總統奧巴馬表示,他寧可好好作一任總統,也不願當一個連任兩屆、卻表現平庸的總統。

奧巴馬將於本週三(1月27日)發表就任後首份國情咨文,他週一(1月25日)接受美國廣播公司(ABC)訪問時表示,希望在日後回首總統生涯時,知道自己曾解決過最具挑戰性的課題,而不只是受歡迎的課題。

他說:“我寧可成為優秀的‘一任總統’,也不願當一名連任兩屆、但表現平庸的總統。”

民主黨上週在麻省參議院補選中馬失前蹄,將堡壘席位拱手讓給共和黨,失去在國會的絕對優勢。對此,奧巴馬稱,他不會逃避責任,將勇於面對各項挑戰。

他說:“華盛頓有很多官員都認為,當選官員的主要工作職責,就是能夠贏得連任。但這並非我的工作範疇,我的工作是解決問題,並且幫助人民。”

他稱,他不希望以後回顧這段日子時,發現自己只注重在如何經營自己的人氣。

奧巴馬即將發表國情咨文,但他遠大的健保改革案目前陷入危機,各界對他更多的施政計劃存疑,加上經濟不見起色,尤其是失業率高企不下,奧巴馬的民調支持率近日在關鍵的50%大關上下擺盪。

儘管如此,奧巴馬在訪談中表示,他對以民調結果作為衡量施政表現的指標很不以為然。

他打趣說:“當民調下跌,你就是個傻子;當民調上升,你就成了天才。若我的支持率很低,那麼我就是冷酷和理智的,冷酷的和淡漠的。但如果我的支持率很高,(人們就會說)‘他很冷靜,甚麼都是合理的’。”

有感選民對失業率持續攀高的焦慮,奧巴馬表示,他將利用發表的國情咨文機會,闡述新的振興經濟措施,以安撫那些擔心飯碗不保的美國民眾。

他說:“我們將討論,如何優先創造工作機會及刺激經濟增長。”

奧巴馬將於大馬時間週四(1月28日)早上發表他上任後,首份國情咨文,希望藉此機會,重整驚慌失措的民主黨人,並贏回滿懷不滿的選民支持。

白宮官員指出,今次國情咨文的主題包括“創造就業、處理財赤、幫助中產和改變華盛頓”。

白宮發言人吉布斯說,奧巴馬的國情咨文的首要重點,是帶領美國的經濟,在更穩固的基礎上復蘇,以及為私營市場,營造合適的氣氛,創造更多職位。

他又說,奧巴馬會在演說中,將勾劃出解決龐大財赤的計劃。

較早前,有媒體披露,奧巴馬今次的國情咨文將會把先前的競選口號:
『是的,我們辦得到』(Yes, we can),改成『是的,我明白』(Yes, I get it),表達他瞭解民怨所在。





伸延閱覽:
奧巴馬入主白宮一年 雅虎新聞網
奧巴馬抗拒平庸寧可不連任做好總統『一任足矣!』 星洲日報



Tuesday, January 26, 2010

澳洲網球公開賽 2010

澳洲網球公開賽 2010



隨著新的一年開始,體育盛事也相繼展開,在南半球正是炎熱的夏天,『澳洲網球公開賽』首週賽事開打了,一個星期後,即是十六強的奪標份子,經已產生。


女單
較人意外的是 Maria Sharapova ,一早在第一圈就被同胞淘汰出局,去年在美國公開賽閃耀的巨人殺手,美國小甜心 Melanie Oudin ,也沒能繼續神話。其他較有名氣的女單選手有:Ana IvanovicJelena JankovicKim Clijsters 都未能雋級十六強,甚為可惜。

還有更可惜的是 Elena Dementieva,在第二回合就對著剛剛復出的 Justine Henin,兩個只能活一個,結果後者 Justine Henin 雋級,前者黯然出局,Elena Dementieva 再一次在大滿貫賽事脫腳,這個惡咒沒有解到。


男單
Roger Federer 在上線繼續堅挺,雖然正值澳洲炎夏,但悠然進入第二週賽事,而傷愈復出的 Rafael Nadal 在下線也沒有失色。較有名氣的男單選手有:David FerrerGael MonfilsJames BlakeMarcos BaghdatisTommy HaasJanko Tipsarevic 都未能雋級十六強,都甚為可惜。


十六強 女單 對賽是 (winners in red):
威廉絲姊妹都在上線,若順利雋級,結果是提前在四強對決,兩個只能活一個入決賽。中國的兩朵金花 李娜 和 鄭潔,都入到十六強,能否繼續過關呢?

上線:
Serena WilliamsSamantha Stosur 6-4,6-2
Vera ZvonarevaVictoria Azarenka 6-4,4-6,0-6
Caroline WozniackiNa Li 4-6,3-6
Francesca SchiavoneVenus Williams 6-3,2-6,1-6

下線:
Justine HeninYanina Wickmayer 7-6(7-3),1-6,6-3
Nadia PetrovaSvetlana Kuznetsova 6-3,3-6,6-1
Alona BondarenkoJie Zheng 6-7(5-7),4-6
Maria KirilenkoDinara Safina 5-4 (retired 退賽)

結果沒有太多冷門,威廉斯姊妹都能晉級,但大威要先輸了一盤再追回,比較意外。中國兩位都能晉級,可喜可賀。莎芬娜受傷退賽,至為可惜。

十六強 男單 (winners in red):
上線的 費達拿 應可以輕易打敗,縱有地利人和的澳洲籍老將 夏偉特 晉級,而 祖高域 若發揮正常晉級後,兩位將會在四強賽上線爭入決賽,這場將會是場惡闘,精彩可期。至于下線睇牌面和排名,八位球手實力較為接近,若發揮正常順利晉級,在下線將會是 洛迪克 對 博拖路、梅利 對 拿度,戲肉所在也。

上線:
Roger FedererLleyton Hewitt 6-2,6-3,6-4
Fernando VerdascoNikolay Davydenko 2-6,5-7,6-4,7-6(7-5),3-6
Novak DjokovicLukasz Kubot 6-1,6-2,7-5
Jo-Wilfried TsongaNicolas Almagro 6-3,6-4,4-6,6-7(6-8),9-7

下線:
Andy RoddickFernando Gonzalez 6-3,3-6,4-6,7-5,6-2
Marin CilicJuan Martin Del Potro 5-7,6-4,7-5,5-7,6-3
Andy MurrayJohn Isner 7-6(7-4),6-3,6-2
Ivo KarlovicRafael Nadal 4-6,6-4,4-6,4-6

結果優勝劣敗,結果正常。上次在美國公開賽,斯力治 輸了給 博拖路,今次在十六強勝回一仗,入了八強,兩人都是,高高瘦瘦,同一類型的球手,勝負要看臨場發揮,今次 斯力勝出。


女單 八強 Quarter Finals (winners in red):
在上線,細威 是無敵的,李娜 要勝 大威,就比較難度高了,看來威廉絲姊妹,難免要先賽一場了。在下線剛復出的 軒蓮 擊敗比利時同胞晉級,將會對同樣擊敗了俄羅斯同胞的 帕杜娃。帕杜娃上仗擊敗了另一位比利時女將 嘉思娜絲,今次 帕杜娃 能否再多一次,打敗比利時女將呢?叫人可惜是俄羅斯的 莎芬娜,竟然一局都未打完,就要退賽,未能入八強。當然希望中國的 鄭潔,可以突破八強,拿下四強一席喇。

Serena WilliamsVictoria Azarenka 4-6,7-6(7-4),6-2
Na LiVenus Williams 2-6,7-6(7-4),7-5

Justine HeninNadia Petrova 7-6(7-3),7-5
Jie ZhengMaria Kirilenko 6-1,6-3

結果上線 細威 先輸一盤4-6,在第二盤搶七勝回一盤,第三盤比賽經驗尚淺的 阿薩寧嘉 蹦盤,輸了2-6,細威晉級。而我想沒有人會想到 李娜 可以勝了 大威,但李娜做到了,恭喜恭喜。下線比利時的 軒蓮 則打敗了俄羅斯的 帕杜娃。當然要恭喜 鄭潔 順利入了四強,但會對 軒蓮。

男單 八強 Quarter Finals (winners in red):
在上線 費特拿 要解決 戴維丹高 應該沒有難度,費特拿的對手會是誰呢?肥胖的 桑加 給人一個新 Look,減了很多磅,而且比以前積極,和 祖高域對賽,可能需要經過一番惡闘,才能定輸贏,不過後者依然被看高一線。在下線,上次在美國公開賽,斯力治 輸了給 博拖路,今次在十六強勝回一仗,入了八強,將會與 洛迪克 爭四強一席位,至于 梅利 對 拿度,真是不是冤家不聚頭。

Roger FedererNikolay Davydenko 2-6,6-3,6-0,7-5
Novak DjokovicJo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-7(8-10),7-6(7-5),6-1,3-6,1-6

Andy RoddickMarin Cilic 6-7(4-7),3-6,6-3,6-2,3-6
Andy MurrayRafael Nadal 6-3,7-6(7-2),3-0 (Retired 退賽)

結果 費特拿 在先輸一盤,但不慌不惶連下三盤,殺下 戴維丹高。桑加
對 祖高域 真是一場惡闘,頭兩盤互要打到決勝局,各勝一盤平手,最後 桑加 晉級四強。而 洛迪克 在先輸兩盤給 斯力治,並兼且有傷之下,可以連追兩盤,經已盡力,可惜後勁不繼。梅利連勝後兩盤後,第三盤還領先 拿度3-0,拿度卻因傷退出,未能翻盤,也屬可惜。

(筆者將會陸續更新比賽結果)

女單 四強 Semi Finals (winners in red):
打敗了大威的 李娜,將會挑戰 細威。至於 軒蓮 與 鄭潔 的對碰,上網查找,沒有往績記錄,是不是兩人從沒有對賽過呢?雖然 軒蓮剛復出,但這位前一姐技術全面,鄭潔 相信沒有取勝之道。四強雖然沒有大細威的姊妹對決,不過 李娜 能打敗 大威 入了四強,跟我一起跌了眼鏡的朋友,也不少吧。

Serena WilliamsNa Li 7-6(7-4),7-6(7-1)
Justine HeninJie Zheng 6-1,6-0

李娜 兩盤都逼到 細威 要打”決勝局“才能勝出,用句俗語:“超額完成”,雖敗猶榮。至于 鄭潔 就沒有好運,如我預言,鄭潔沒有取勝之道,沒能招架,更無還擊之力,上了一堂網球課 。

男單 四強 Semi Finals (winners in red):
費特拿 對 桑加 應該沒有爆冷呱,但 桑加 的確瘦身成功,有決心去打好波。斯力治 對 梅利 應該精彩,不過心高氣傲的 梅利,可不可以打敗,沒有太多表現情緒 emotion ,永遠沉著應戰的 斯力治 呢?

Roger FedererJo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-2,6-3,6-2
Marin CilicAndy Murray 6-3,4-6,4-6,2-6

費特拿 在未受任何威脅下,三盤直落勝了 桑加 入決賽。而斯力治 祇能在第一盤勝出,梅利 連勝三盤,取得晉級決賽。據報導 斯力治 之前的兩輪比賽,都要打足五盤,體力消耗,未能及時恢復,雙反 梅利 上兩輪比賽,都能直落三盤,就淘汰對手,對 拿度 更是對方退賽,以逸代勞,顧此可以勝出。但這是否抹殺了 梅利 本身的努力呢?翻看重播片段,心高氣傲的 梅利,今次改善了心理素質,表現成熟了,若能奪冠,樂見網壇多一個,有天份的新巨星。

當 NFL 產生了 AFC 和 NFC 的冠軍後,需要休息一個週末,等到二月七日才比賽,剛好趁這個空檔,就是『澳洲網球公開賽』的決賽天。

但 NFL Pro Bowl 明星賽,本是讓球星們,在球季結束後,來個歡樂聚會,表演多過競爭,但今年不等到打完 Super Bowl,才齊齊飛去 夏威夷 打 Pro Bowl 比賽,轉而提早利用空檔的週日 1月31日,于邁亞密 Sun Life Stadium 舉行。


Jan. 30th週六的女單決賽是(winner in red) :

Serena WilliamsJustine Henin 6-4,3-6,6-2

結果:Serena Williams 封后。 復出的 軒蓮 雖然技術仍在,有好幾球很有質素的揮拍,贏到不少掌聲。但不竟休息了一段長時間,力拼贏回第二盤後,更急于求成,而且體力不及,要兵行險著,第三盤拼輸了。其實 細威 失誤也很多,但狀態較佳,強而有力的第一發球,成功在關鍵時刻製造幾個“Ace 球”,把 軒蓮 的反擊壓下來,可說祇是保持水準,夠勝出了比賽。

Jan. 31st週日的男單決賽是(winner in red):

費球王這幾年來,在大滿貫決賽中,輸過給不少給年輕新星。過去兩年被 拿度 食著,到了拿度 養傷期間,又于去年的美國公開賽輸過給 博拖路。翻查記錄,在 2008年的美國公開賽決賽,就直落三盤,輕易勝了當時尚是新嫰的 梅利。今次再度相逢,可以說 費特拿 有可勝之道,但不穩!

Roger FedererAndy Murray 6-3,6-4,7-6(13-11)

結果:Roger Federer 封王。頭兩盤 梅利 沒有板斧 Game Plan,去打敗球王 費特拿,也可說被費球王睇穿哂,未能發圍。第三盤 梅利 盡地一拼,加上 費特拿 又出現,令他幾次致敗的惡習。在大好形勢下,費特拿 總太愛顯示他的“王者風範”,刻意打出優美姿態,表現王者之風路數。

第三盤 費特拿 自掘墳墓,皆因他捨大板楸擊,已經失位的 梅利,卻一而再,再而三、四、五次,想利用 drop shot 縮 梅利 矮仔,但卻被 梅利 死命追上來,打個 passing shot 超越球救回失分,反而得分。就在如此這般,此消彼長之下,讓 梅利 反過來領先 5-2,有了翻身之望,差點勝回一盤。

最後 費特拿 幾經幸苦,才追到五平,六平,要打 tie breaker 決勝局搶七。但又是同一死穴,死愛要表現他自己的優美姿態,不趁 梅利 失位,大板了決對手,而選用輕觸式放短球,讓 梅利 有時間死命追到,救球成功得分。記得在“決勝局”兩次的 championship point,都被 梅利救回,由搶七變成一路打到 11-11 平手,才再勝兩分以 13-11 勝出第三盤,以大分 3-0 拿到冠軍。

各位可有見過 費特拿,于臨急時飛身救球,滾地葫蘆般去搶分呢?費特拿已經贏了他的第十六個冠軍,如他不選擇提早退休,我們還可多看幾年,他令人”肉緊“的“王者球技”!



伸延閱覽:
Australian Open 澳洲網球公開賽 官方網頁
Australian Open 澳洲網球公開賽 女單 官方網頁
Australian Open 澳洲網球公開賽 男單 官方網頁


Monday, January 25, 2010

米蘭打吡



Now 633 臺,午夜直播足球賽,因為有幾次前科,會突然冇波睇,解釋曰:”技術故障“,我都是十五十六,好不好瞓定晏覺,準備在午夜觀看,凌晨三時三刻開始的意甲聯賽重頭戲。


這場重頭戲,是由近來回勇的”AC米蘭“ Milan,已經升到第二位,對賽在意甲聯賽暫時領先的”國際米蘭“ Inter,的同市宿敵隊伍。Milan 勝則拉近距離,若 Inter 勝則繼續領放,沒有那隊可以追近,差不多是冠軍前哨戰。


好了,週日的下午,吃完下午茶餐,趁著天陰陰,就攤在床上看書,但可能是本書太吸引,竟然沒有睡意,唯有不捨也得放下,改讀另外一本較為沉悶的書,就這樣子,我估計是約由五時許睡著的。


經過個多鐘頭睡眠,原來是肚子有肚餓的感覺,叫醒了我,唯有躝起身,做晚餐吃罷,七時半簡簡單單的晚餐,就準備妥當,有得吃了。


但也祇是晚上八時許,點樣可以等到凌晨三是半呢?整整有七個鐘頭多,由于下午晏覺祇睡得個多小時,好不好再去睡多一會,較定鬧鐘三時半吵醒我罷。


趁著吃完晚餐,飯氣攻心,若躺在床上看悶書,可能睡得著呱,怎知還是沒有睡意,相信之前的晏覺,起了相當作用,既然沒有睡著,到十時許,就起來上網罷。


網上幾位常去探訪的網友,都出了新文 ,有需要回應的,都回應了,再讀讀新聞,過了零時,還有多幾位網友,又出了新文,咁又去八一下喇。


點知就在最關鍵的時刻,我想即是凌晨三時許,睡魔急 CALL,就在書房的電腦前,雖然坐在椅子上,都畀睡魔 CALL 得到,睡著了!


迷迷糊糊,我不知是甚麼時間,就走了入睡房,大覺瞓,覺覺豬!


早上又依時依候自覺地醒來,原來電腦和電視都沒有記得熄掉,開了整整一晚,浪費了一晚電費。 哈哈哈!我相信就是因為這樣,很多香港島居民都是浪費電力,顧此”港燈“的收益,年年節節上升,股票價格堅挺罷。



後記:
好了入返正題,”米蘭打吡“的結果是,Inter 勝利 二比零,Milan 沒有招架之力。第一球趁 Milan 後衛過失,解圍不及,讓 米列圖 接應,妙射遠柱入網。第二球是定點罰球,Milan 門將 迪達,呆若木雞,畀 Inter 彭迪夫,一腳彎過人牆,又是遠柱入網。


最後,Milan 博得十二碼點球,交由細哨 朗拿甸奴 主射,竟然讓同是巴西隊隊友,Inter 門將 施撒,捉到路撲出,所以話射派邊個射十二碼,教練要睇對方守門員是誰。


新聞報導,Inter 長時間祇得十人應戰,完場時前幾分鐘補時,還祇剩下九人,有兩人被球證紅牌出場,Milan 十一人,加埋球證,都贏唔到,冇得賴罷!


伸延閱覽:
國米兩人被逐 贈AC兩蛋 雅虎新聞網



Sunday, January 24, 2010

自動當選

自動當選



在簡單的投票制,差額選舉制度,理論上得最多票的一位候選人,就能勝出選舉。當多過兩個參選人,例如三位候選者,若實力平均,各人都是得到三十多至四十巴仙的選票,沒有一位得到過半的認同,但得票最多的,卻仍然當選了。


若有三個或以上實力相約的候選人,四個、五個、六個,最多票的一位,可能祇得二三十個巴仙選票,這當選者,其實反對他她的投票,還多過認同他她的投票。


所以有很多國家的差額選舉制度,是把低得票的候選人撇除,再舉行第二輪,甚至第三輪,第四輪的投票,直至最後,有人得票過半,即得到五十巴仙或以上的票數,才會被承認是當選人。


雙反若祇得一位候選人,沒有了差額,沒有了競爭,就連投票都可以慳返,『自動當選』了事,但還是有些國家,照樣去投票給唯一的候選人。


當然,在差額選舉中,在沒有競爭對手之下,選民應可不用投票,但這樣就沒有了選舉氣氛,更缺乏了認受性,主辦選舉的一方,會覺得沒有面子,那就有需要找人做”媒“了。同樣,候選人一方,為了讓投票選舉,可當作一項選民”表態“,卻苦無競爭對手,也可以找些爛頭卒出來,曰是競爭對手參選。


做媒的選舉方式,安插爛頭卒的選舉安排,去避免『自動當選』,這都還是需要依例舉行選舉,需要經費安排投票,結果耗費公帑兼且浪費時間。難道選民對此就祇可以沉默地接受?選民對此又可以怎樣作回應呢?



後記:2010-01-26 社民連擬自製對手 公民黨寧自動當選
【明報專訊】面對建制派「冷對待」補選,公、社兩黨雖然決心繼續去馬,不過具體怎樣打這場選戰卻出現分歧。公民黨 余若薇 屬意自動當選,不會刻意製造選舉;但社民連建議派出另一隊泛民隊伍「對撼」,促成「公投」效果。

社民連梁國雄 指出,他們擬定的另一支泛民參選隊伍,不會假裝成「建制派」,而是採取同樣的普選 議題,二人得票將相加成總得票,來衡量「公投」是否成功,不過建議仍需與公民黨商討。

社民連主席黃毓民 亦認為,自動當選不是「公投」,希望可製造「選舉」,令市民可就議題投票,就算出選的是「假對手」、建制派或「自己人」亦不成問題。

不過,公民黨余若薇則持不同意見,「真是沒有人報名,便促使另一些人報名,不會這樣做,尊重不同對手,不會只為自由黨 或民建聯 而設……當人選或候選人色彩不是濃厚下,更加希望促成這個議題辯論」。

余若薇強調不會製造選舉,寧可自動當選,但她相信現時說建制派杯葛,兩黨會無對手是言之尚早。



後後記:2010-1-27 建制派杯葛五子未能在立法會宣讀辭職宣言
【明報專訊】5名請辭議員原定今日在立法會大會上發表請辭宣言,但因出席議員人數不足半數,主席宣布休會。

5名請辭議員梁國雄、黃毓民、陳偉業、陳淑莊及梁家傑,今日原計劃發表請辭演講。民建聯主席譚耀宗表示,不滿有議員利用辭職搞公投,又利用立法會作宣傳,拉隊離場抗議。工聯會議員王國興離場時,高叫口號。在中午1時15分,因出席議員人數不足,立法會主席曾鈺成要求鳴鐘,召集議員開會,但過了15分鐘後,人數仍未過半,曾鈺成宣布休會,下周三才續會,令5人未能有機會發言。

由於5名議員昨日已遞交請辭信,將於本周五失去議員身分,將不能再在立法會上發言。




伸延閱覽:
未見對手 雅虎新聞網
社民連擬自製對手 公民黨寧自動當選 雅虎新聞網
由「公投」到「起義」愈叫愈激脫離現實不符香港利益 雅虎新聞網
建制派杯葛 立法會流會 五子未能發言 雅虎新聞網
梁家傑辭職發言全文 雅虎新聞網
黃毓民辭職發言全文 新浪新聞網
陳淑莊辭職發言全文 新浪新聞網
陳偉業辭職發言全文 新浪新聞網



我的舊文:
相煎何太急?
為甚麼泛民要五區總辭?