「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Sunday, February 08, 2009

1,000,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000



上面的數字,就是一萬億嘞!


美國前前後後將會用一萬億美元來振興經濟。


有個議員話,由耶穌誕生至今,二千零八年一個月零十幾日,每天使一百萬美元,都未使完這一萬億。


算術:[(2008 X 365) + (2009/3)《註》+31 +10] x 1,000,000
= 733,631,000,000

《註》每三年一潤年多一天

1,000,000,000,000 - 733,631,000,000
=266,369,000,000 有找

《CNN》 To provide some perspective on just how big a trillion dollars is, think about it like this: A trillion dollars is the number 1 followed by 12 zeroes. Or you can think of it this way: One trillion $1 bills stacked one on top of the other would reach nearly 68,000 miles (about 109,400 kilometers) into the sky, or about a third of the way from the Earth to the moon.

Some Republicans are hardly over the moon about the growing size of the proposed economic stimulus plan. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said this week that Americans have become desensitized to just how much money that is.

"To put a trillion dollars in context, if you spend a million dollars every day since Jesus was born, you still wouldn't have spent a trillion," McConnell said.

CNN checked McConnell's numbers with noted Temple University math professor and author John Allen Paulos.

"A million dollars a day for 2,000 years is only three-quarters of a trillion dollars. It's a big number no matter how you slice it," Paulos said.

Here's another way to look at it.

"A million seconds is about 11½ days. A billion seconds is about 32 years, and a trillion seconds is 32,000 years," Paulos said. "People tend to lump them together, perhaps because they rhyme, but if you think of it in terms of a jail sentence, do you want to go to jail for 11½ days or 32 years or maybe 32,000 years? So, they're vastly different, and people generally don't really have a real visceral grasp of the differences among them."

Everyone is tossing around the words million, billion and trillion. With the national debt now topping $10 trillion, following a $700 billion bank rescue and proposed $800 billion-plus stimulus package, have we become numb to the numbers?

The economic problem, many say, demands huge spending. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has called it "the mother of all crises."

The numbers are big, but so is the United States economy. The gross domestic product, which measures the total value of goods and services produced in a country, is about $14 trillion. Still, many wonder if we can afford it.

"So we do have a big economy that may not be as vibrant as it was, but it is still a powerful economic engine. Knock on wood, we'll see what happens," said Paulos.

Last week, the House passed an $819 billion emergency stimulus, and the Senate version is approaching $900 billion. In the end, whatever lawmakers hash out probably won't reach $1 trillion. But consider this: If all of the financial market interventions, loans, guarantees, bailouts and rescues total more than $7 trillion.


CNN話眾議院批出刺激經濟方案,就使咗八千一百九十億($819 billion),而參議院版本是九千億($900 billion),接近一萬億($1 trillion),但若計哂啲 financial market interventions, loans, guarantees, bailouts and rescues 救市埋單計數會是七萬億($7 trillion)。


各位人生七十古來稀,70歲就是
(70X365)+(70/3)x24x60x60= ??? 秒
有冇一萬億? 邊個多啲呢? 七萬億呢?


二月四日是奧巴馬渡過上任以來,最黑的一天!


明報專訊 奧巴馬班子接連傳出操守問題,成為共和黨攻擊奧巴馬的把柄。共和黨上周舉行集思會時,眾議員坎托(Eric Cantor)問道﹕「為何民主黨總是要加稅?」台下觀眾喊道﹕「因為他們從不交稅!」


「自我期許太高易被打沉」
由於奧巴馬承諾變革,專家擔心,接二傳出奧班子其身不正,或令奧巴馬蜜月期提早結束。專家認為奧巴馬低估了華府歪風的程度,定下太高期望。政治學者薩巴托說﹕「奧巴馬定下的期望太高了,當你自我期許太高時,便會給這文化打沉」。

奧巴馬正式上班首天便訂立禁止說客入閣的嚴格條例,但外界卻發現其班子成員涉嫌違規。最受矚目的是副防長提名人林恩(William Lynn),他曾任軍火商說客。參議院下周將就其任命舉行聽證,預料屆時會遭到共和黨議員質疑。

奧班子已有3名提名閣員因為操守問題退出,財長蓋特納雖然僥倖逃過大難,但一些輿論認為,蓋特納「身為財長卻不交稅」這死穴,將來難免被翻舊帳。布魯金斯研究所的曼爾指出,奧巴馬現在一邊要尋求通過刺激經濟方案,一邊要處理施政危機,他如何應付,「將可預示這4年任期會怎樣」。



星島日報 美國總統奧巴馬的新政府在周二遭遇雙重打擊,獲提名出任衞生部長的達施勒及白宮首席績效官的基利弗,因為稅務問題在數小時內相繼放棄提名。加上原商務部長人選理查森涉及收受利益醜聞放棄提名,奧巴馬提名的人選接二連三出現道德問題,令上任僅兩星期的奧巴馬罕有地公開認錯,承認「我把事情搞砸了」(I screwed up)。

周二是奧巴馬自上月二十日正式宣誓就任以來最糟糕的一天,因為同日有一名候任閣員及一名白宮候任高官,雙雙因為稅務問題而放棄提名。其中獲提名出任衞生部長的達施勒(Tom Daschle)被揭發由○五年至○七年間漏稅十二萬八千美元,雖然他已在上月初獲悉被提名後補交連同一萬二千美元過期利息罰款在內的十四萬美元欠款,並就事件道歉,但仍未能平息外界的爭議。

參議院前多數黨主席達施勒是奧巴馬的密友,奧巴馬原本寄望借重他的理念及經驗來推動醫療保健制度改革。然而,除了稅務問題外,達施勒還面臨「利益衝突問題」,因為他曾從一些健康保健與醫療機構中接受「演講費」和「諮詢費」。

達施勒表示,為免提名過程橫生枝節,令奧巴馬的醫療保健改革計畫受到拖累,主動退出提名。奧巴馬接納他退出提名,但表示「傷心及遺憾」。白宮否認曾向達施勒施壓。

在達施勒宣布放棄提名前,原將負責監督預算及開支改革的白宮候任首席績效官基利弗(Nancy Killefer),也因為欠交僱傭稅而放棄提名。

面對高官提名人選接二連三出現稅務問題,奧巴馬出面承擔責任,表示自己把事情「搞砸了」。達施勒漏稅消息曝光後,奧巴馬日前曾帶領白宮幕僚,大力為曾經漏繳稅款的達施勒辯護。

不過事隔一天,他就在全國廣播公司(NBC)、美國廣播公司(ABC)、哥倫比亞廣播公司(CBS)、霍士新聞台及CNN等訪問中承擔責任,指他不應向公眾傳達錯誤的訊息,讓人們誤以為對精英和普通人來說,有兩套納稅規則。

他對CNN說:「我想我把事情搞砸了,我為此承擔責任。」他又對NBC說:「是我把事情搞砸了嗎?絕對是,我願意負責。」他在接受霍士新聞台訪問時也強調:「我為這個錯誤負全責。」



用天文數字的金錢,企圖挽救美國經濟,但這些錢不是 windfall,由個天跌落嚟,由啲搖錢樹生出來嘅噃。 美國政府又是靠借錢,發行國債,況且美國國債,今時今日已經在十萬億以上,咁發債好啲呢?還是加印 fiat money 紙幣較容易呢?


要美元繼續成為儲備貨幣,要保持美元成為風險避難所,因為一旦環球危機陰影消散,極有可能看到相反的投資趨勢,投資者分散風險、轉移目標、撤出美元資產,美元幣值能否長期企硬?顧此,美國要不斷在全球製做危機感,令到外國資本不敢撤出美元資產。


政治上新上任的奧巴馬團隊,屢遇到挫折,攪到要上電視當中說:
『I screwed up !』

美國人將可預示這4年會怎樣過了!全世界可預示這4年會怎樣過了!


伸延閱覽:
What is 1,000,000,000,000? CNN
廉政班子「其身不正」 明報
奧巴馬認錯:我搞砸了!I screwed up 星島日報
美國資產有毒 美債卻仍是避難所 明報
Mortgages May Be Toxic, But US Treasuries Appear a Safe Haven Yale University


我的舊文:
刺激 spending 和 multiplier effect
出議反議?
再不是金本位的美元仍是風險避難所



8 comments:

新鮮人 said...

放長雙睇了!
美國嘅環球地位日漸衰退,
新興嘅一定是中國,
問題是時間而已!

imak said...

space... from the first 700B bailout from bush, i have been having trouble counting the digits!! now another $800 billion-plus stimulus package, i feel very scary when i think of where all the money goes.

exile from hk said...

Hong Kong should depeg from the US dollar now before it is too late. Why not peg with the Chinese yuan?

the inner space said...

新鮮兄:
多謝捧場回應!
美國爛船都有三斤釘,底子夠厚,
就好似啲大企業conglomerates,
大到關係全球興衰,
冇人敢畀佢啉到底。
反而中國開發改革祇三十年,底子薄,
如今美國佬自殘,最有可能先拖垮中國,
中國今次過到關,若無攪出內亂,已屬萬幸,
要中國取而代之,沒有咁夢想!
有生之年,不用見不到中國自亂,已感安慰!

順祝:元宵佳節,人月倆圓。

the inner space said...

imak 姐:
Thank you for you visit and constructive comment!

Actually,CNN's Title was: Numb and Number: Is trillion the new billion?

"numb" if I did not get it wrong, it meant sort of mild temporarily paralysis.

According to the latest news they are scaling down to some 700billion dollars, and will be signed by Obama before mid of month.

As to where will or did the moeny go, I have the same concern! Let's pray!

順祝元宵節天氣和暖可以在府上天臺賞月

the inner space said...

Ms/ Mr exile from HK
thank you for visiting again and your intriguing suggestion.

Hope you could see the moon on the 15th night at your side of the globe. Enjoy!

微豆 Haricot said...

In a globalized economy, countries are becoming more interdependent. In order for China's economy to grow, it needs foreign buyers such as the US consumers (in addition to the domestic market). If the US economy sinks, China and many other manufacturing-based countries (i.e. world's factories) will be in bad shape.

the inner space said...

hari 兄:
據聞加拿大出口原料到美國都受到影響!
新的預算案縱能暫時協助哈帕政府渡過倒臺危機,
楓葉國卻流失了很多工作職位情況未許樂觀。