My Facebook 新增面書 心空海嶽 by the inner space 歡迎光臨 Welcome in

「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

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Monday, September 08, 2008

全球經濟進入嚴冬期

全球經濟進入嚴冬期




美國罕有的在星期天,股市休市天宣布:
明報專訊美國政府星期日宣布接管「房利美」和「房貸美」兩個樓按機構,以協助美國的樓市和經濟。

房利美和房貸美的最高負責人將要撤換,而政府會成立聯邦住房融資機構,接管房利美和房貸美,並會營運兩房直至穩定為止。

美國財長保爾森說,由於兩房的負債巨大,所以必須採取這項措施,以免出現破產。

美國聯儲局主席伯南克表示,措施有助保持兩房的財政穩健。



星島日報美國眾議院金融服務委員會主席弗蘭克證實,華府計劃接管陷入困境的兩間半官方樓按機構「房利美」與「房貸美」。若計劃落實,將是美國歷來最大規模的金融拯救行動。

《華爾街日報》報道,弗蘭克6日發表聲明表示,美國財政部長保爾森計劃使用國會7月份授予他的一項特別權力,對房利美和房地美進行救助,以確保兩家機構保持穩定和繼續發揮作用。他同時表示,目前他還不知道有關美國政府接管房利美和房地美計劃的具體內容。

據悉,兩房的行政總裁將被撤換,兩家公司將向財政部發行的優先股方式分季度獲得注資。 美國的樓按市場高達12萬億美元,近一半是由兩房持有或提供保證。但美國樓巿下滑,令兩房持續錄得虧損。早前有報道,指財政部為恢復巿場對兩房的信心,計劃由聯邦接管。

兩房一旦由聯邦接管,兩房普通股的價值將會被攤薄,而其他票據,包括公司債券及優先股,會受到政府保障。



正當香港立法會的投票率偏低,啲學者就解讀為,官民矛盾不多,社會整體怨氣較少,所以選民不出來投票。曾蔭權 和 曾俊華(兩曾),兩次派糖給市民,真喺掩得到啲市民個口?真是為香港悲哀!


上個財政年度水浸,加上政府官員民調聲望插水,兩曾一先一後,狂花納稅人的公帑,派!派!派!派糖,派金,派錢!咁下個財政年度又派乜呢?


香港股市由去年近三萬二千多點,已經回落到二萬樓下,成交減少,股票交易的稅金暴跌,金融管理局勁蝕三季,到年尾埋單應該接近千億以上罷(我悲觀啲嘛),樓市開始有人蝕讓離場,還有還有。。。。。。。不用講喇!


美國的次按未見喜色,原油價反映出需求低而大跌,油組話要減產托價,都唔升返。美元技術性反彈,不是因為美元轉強,而是其他國家,受美國次按影響,陸續浮現,前景更差,跌到反令美元升,但購買力就,唉!通漲依然高企,美國政府再度出手接收『兩美』,這告訴我們甚麼呢?大家心知肚明~『全球經濟進入嚴冬期!』希望不會太長喇!


補記:
從 CNN 讀到的評論 (不是全文 擇錄數段):

Fannie, Freddie rescue won't end housing woes
Bailout of Fannie and Freddie might lower mortgage rates but it's unlikely to lead to a quick turnaround for the troubled housing market.

The federal government's takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may save the battered real estate market from a complete meltdown. But financial experts say the bailout won't lead to a housing recovery just yet.

Instead, some on Wall Street said the housing sector is in as tough shape today as it was before Sunday's rescue by the Treasury Department.


Unanswered questions
The cost of the government intervention remains unclear however. Experts argue that it will depend in large part on the structure of the rescue, the direction of home prices and mortgage default rates.

Still it seems almost certain it will run into the billions and will most likely eclipse such other high-profile government bailouts including than the Federal Reserve's $29 billion backing of Bear Stearns assets when it was taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase.

Paulson said that the cost to taxpayers would largely depend on the future financial performance of Fannie and Freddie.

Another unintended yet unavoidable consequence may be the impact to the nation's banks.


Some of the nation's largest financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase
and Sovereign Bancorp own a big chunk of the estimated $36 billion in preferred shares of Fannie and Freddie, according to research published last month by Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank that specializes in financial firms. Those stakes are at risk of being wiped out as a result of Sunday's announcement.

Top banking regulators, including the Federal Reserve as well as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said in a joint statement Sunday that a limited number of smaller institutions have significant preferred share holdings in Fannie and Freddie. They added they are prepared to work with these institutions to come up with a plan should they need to raise capital.



再一次 quote 返我個句:

『百萬軍中藏阿斗,千億美元埋次按!』

想起『阿斗』和『次按』,兩者都是扶也不起來之輩,中外古今,何其巧合,令我 握腕長嘆!



伸延閱覽:
Not a quick fix for housing (CNN)
U.S. seizes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (CNN)
Aftershocks: More bank failures (CNN)
Rescue costs: The big unknown (CNN)
The biggest losers (CNN)

我的舊文:
11-05-07 美聯儲局維持利率不變
18-08-07 次按 Secondary Mortgage
11-12-07 再談美國次按風暴
21-01-08 布殊再出招救市
08-02-08 鼠年『兇險』的一年
15-07-08 阿斗 and 次按



6 comments:

新鮮人 said...

唉~~~~~~ =(

the inner space said...

新鮮兄:
但今早市場反而認為這是好消息!
明報:“受美國政府接管兩大房貸機構的消息刺激,亞太區股市上升,港股開市勁升逾900點。“
但我冧是的大鱷做市,等啲小投資者,以為反彈,接哂的貨!睇睇炒消息,炒得幾耐!
我都想個市好啲嘅!但實際喺唔喺呢?

the inner space said...

星期一勁升後!

已連跌兩天了,
今天還有個多鐘trading hours,
有冇“V”形反彈呢?

The Inner Space said...

收市更比三時跌多些少!
兩房的消息燒化於無形,
紐約就回穩希望在明天!

The Inner Space said...

自週一上升後,
恒指連跌三日,
比之前的指數,
還要跌凸多了!

the inner space said...

祇週一上升之外,
連跌四個交易日,
比之前恒生指數,
還要跌凸很多了,
週五仲先升後跌,
中秋後週二點睇?