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「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

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Monday, January 21, 2008

布殊再出招救市

布殊再出招救市




布殊中東之行,到阿拉伯世界和啲穆斯林猶長們,手執阿拉伯彎刀,攬頭攬頸跳阿拉伯戰舞後,匆匆趕回華府,宣佈一連串挽救由『次按』引發的經濟危機。 但宣佈之後,因不合市場預期,市場應聲再跌多些,最後雖然升翻啲,道指跌了近六十點。


香港星期五晚,星期六凌晨,我特登唔訓都睇著 CNN 和 BBC,仲上網睇吓啲文字資料,想詳細知道布殊有乜料到。 以下是我臨訓前抄低的資料,睇吓星期一在亞太區,根據時差首先開市,有乜嘢攪作。(寫于一月十九日星期六清晨)


《CNN》Bush calls for quick tax relief President Bush on Friday proposed a temporary, broad-based tax relief package aimed at spurring the nation's slowing economy.

During remarks at the White House, Bush, flanked by economic advisers, said the nation's economy is at risk for a downturn and Congress must act to head off trouble.

"This growth package must be big enough to make a difference in an economy as large and dynamic as ours," Bush said.

"By passing a growth package quickly, we can provide a shot in the arm to keep a fundamentally strong economy healthy, and it will help keep economic sectors that are going through adjustments, such as the housing market, from adversely affecting other parts of our economy."

It should equal about 1 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, or roughly $140 billion, he added. Bush said the economy will continue to grow but at a slower rate.


Bernanke' remark

《CNN》Bernanke told the House Budget Committee on Thursday that he does not believe the economy will enter a recession, but he said he expects growth to proceed at a slow pace this year and possibly into early 2009. He said Congress needs to take decisive action to boost the economy.

"To be useful, a fiscal stimulus package should be implemented quickly and structured so that its effects on aggregate spending are felt as much as possible within the next 12 months or so," Bernanke said. But he said any package should be "explicitly temporary" to avoid running up the government's long-term debt.

Bernanke stopped short of suggesting that the Bush tax cuts should be made permanent, telling lawmakers he supports "the law of arithmetic."




《BBC》Bush calls for economy kick-start President George W Bush has called for a special package of measures worth billions of dollars to avoid a downturn in the world's biggest economy.


He said the growth package would have to be big enough to make a difference to the "large and dynamic" US economy.

Mr Bush said it had to include tax incentives for US business and direct tax relief for the American people.

The package should total at least 1% of gross domestic product, or about $145bn (£74bn), the White House said.

A US housing market slump and problems in the financial markets have raised fears of a severe economic downturn, with some economists talking about the risk of recession.

The Bush administration has already announced measures to help homeowners struggling to make repayments on their mortgages.

Tax incentives for businesses would help them make new investments and create new jobs, while "letting Americans keep more of their money should increase consumer spending," President Bush said.


Tax relief

Some lawmakers and officials are pressing for a tax rebate of at least $300 per taxpayer, with some lawmakers seeking as much as $800 for per person and $1,600 for families.

Speaking after the president, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the risks of not taking action to stimulate the economy were too high.

Mr Paulson declined to give specific details about the emergency package before talking to Congressional leaders but said a "significant part" would be for ordinary consumers.

Mr Paulson said the stimulus package could create an extra half a million jobs this year.

Disappointment

US shares turned sharply lower following the announcement, with some market participants saying that Mr Bush's plan did not go far enough.

Global stock indexes had earlier risen on optimism that the plan would help revive growth in the world's largest economy.

The BBC's Mark Gregory says the impact of the stimulus package would be more political than economic.

A stimulus package worth perhaps $140bn dollars will have little real impact on a total US economy worth a gargantuan $14,000bn a year, our correspondent says.

If nothing else it'll make the politicians feel their doing something and cheer up the voters - and who knows it may even do some good, he says




上次 布殊救次按 被轟干預市場
宣稱120萬戶受惠 專家質疑


【明報專訊】美國總統布殊昨晨公布了挽救美國樓市的方案,宣稱可令120萬戶次級按揭業主受惠,但「順得哥情失嫂意」,金融界人士指方案嚴重干預市場操作,且亦對次按債券持有人不公平,因方案意味著投資者再不能收到原來本應可以收到較高利息回報,有違當初購入這些債券時的條款。有法律界人士亦指,方案牽一髮動全身,或會觸發此等債券持有人的大規模訴訟。


香港銀行公會主席蘇利民昨天舉行例行會議後表示,布殊政府出手救市的成效仍有待觀察,主要是當中涉及法律問題,評級機構亦已即時提出了他們的關注,鑑於法律事宜比較複雜,因此措施未必可以即時落實,效用亦要視乎實際的執行情況而定。


市場乏信心 同業拆息未跌方案得失未有定論,惟方案於香港時間昨日清晨公布後,道瓊斯工業平均指數周四收市即上升了174點;歐洲股市昨天早段亦普遍回升,例如昨日英國富士100指數早段最多升過92點。但反映銀行之間放貸信心的倫敦美元同業拆息卻沒有因而下跌,一個月拆息仍維持在5.23厘水平,遠較美國聯邦基金利率的4.5厘高,反映市場放貸信心未有明顯改善。


監察組織︰最多14.5萬戶得益布殊宣布了多項措施紓緩次按危機,包括將部分符合資格的次級按揭息率凍結5年、讓合乎資格的業主可以重整債務,以及由聯邦房屋局擔保貸款。他宣稱,計劃估計可令120萬業主受惠。但私人分析員估計受惠人士遠低於此數。


Economy.com首席經濟師贊迪(Mark Zandi)表示﹕「計劃理論上可幫助多達75萬名次按業主,但實際上我認為它最多只能令25萬人受惠。」監察借貸行業的「負責任貸款中心」(The Center for Responsible Lending) 更指出,由於援助條款太嚴苛,只有14.5萬個家庭符合資格。


眾議院房屋財務委員會主席法蘭克(Barney Frank)則指摘,計劃令大量有良好借貸紀錄的業主無法得到協助,對他們不公平。法氏稱﹕「我們總是告訴人們,不要惹上周身債。但現在我們卻在說債務愈多的人愈有優惠。」被轟不公 「債務愈多愈有優惠」方案不但未必令次按業主受惠,部分投資者更反而受害。首當其衝是那些購入了包括次按成分的債券及洐生工具投資者,因他們將無法如期取得本應可以調升的更高利息回報。


評級機構標準普爾亦表示,若方案只凍結按揭息口,可能無助減少斷供的個案出現,而且會令一些洐生工具或債券的回報下降,因而會影響這些投資工具的評級,可能會令銀行要作出更多的壞帳撥備。財長保爾森也承認今次的救市方案不是「萬應靈丹」。


有份參與布殊救市方案的美國證券化聯盟(ASF)卻仍力撐政府的努力,指部分債權人的利息收入雖減少,但相關損失肯定少於斷供潮所帶來的惡果。

********************************************************************************


美國布殊政府,似孚冇乜板斧,兩次的所謂救市效果成疑,今次就是減稅,遲些又再減息,靠減稅減息,祇會把美元推得更低!


港元在聯系匯率機制下,應聲下跌,啲學者話好﹐有利於出口! 匯率低有惠遊客消費! 香港有乜製造出口? 充其量是轉口內地產品﹐但香港人的衣食住行﹐柴米油鹽﹐都是靠入口﹐港幣對人民幣匯率跌了多少﹐大家心裡有數。


香港沒有天然資源﹐沒有製造業﹐樣樣都靠入口﹐美元疲弱﹐港幣跟美元聯繫匯率﹐隨著對各種貨幣偏低﹐歐洲的入口貨多是舶來的奢侈品﹐可以不買﹐美國貨因由聯繫匯率﹐上落不大。但港幣對人民幣匯率不斷拉遠﹐衣﹑食﹑住﹑行﹑柴﹑米﹑油﹑鹽﹑醬﹑醋﹑茶﹐最多當然來自內地。


而內地股市仍然熾熱,加上八月的奧運會,相信中央會營造良好氣氛,不會落重藥,畜牧民炒股好過養豬養牛,農民炒股好過種植生產.....香港豬牛肉漲價,麵粉來價飛騰。


對於香港由通縮轉頭通漲,據說到三月尾財政年度完結﹐會有千億盈餘,各位高薪厚職,又有分紅,可能不覺﹐我呢啲基層打工仔﹐卻沒有得受惠于財政盈餘,壓力重擔祇會愈來愈大!


TVB News


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財政司司長曾俊華,出席TVB在觀塘APM商場舉行節目,諮詢市民對預算案意見,曾俊華表示很關注通脹,對低下階層影響,會研究支援措施,又強調盈餘雖然多,但一定要審慎運用。曾俊華指出美國的隱憂,會是下個財政年度,充分影響香港。


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後記:
08年1月21日
是日為美國黑人民權領袖馬丁路德金紀念日假期,MLK Day 美國股市休市一天。
下午一時
恆生指數中午收市報24,487點,跌714點,成交573億元。市場對美國總統布殊提出的刺激經濟措施失望,港股開市就跌逾700點。
下午四時香港收市
恆指收市報23,818.86,跌1383.01,成交1175億元。
傍晚六時
美國挽救經濟方案未被看好,環球股市再出現急挫,歐洲股市早上普遍跌2%,幅度未及亞太區。
晚上八時
歐洲股市接近正午時跌幅擴大,由早上大約2%,擴大至4%至6%,市場相信熊市已來臨。
最後歐洲股市
由於擔心美國經濟可能出現衰退,歐洲股市出現自2001年美國911襲擊以來最大單日跌幅。倫敦富時100指數收報5,578點,跌323點,跌幅5.48%。法蘭克福DAX指數收報6,790點,跌523點,跌幅7.16%。巴黎CAC40指數收報4,744點,跌347點,跌幅6.83%。
星期二香港開市會是甚麼景象?
恆指收市報21757.63,跌2061.23 而原定是下周二起一連兩天議息,預期下周三(香港時間下周四凌晨)才會有結果,但現時聯備局突然提早宣布減息,美國聯邦儲備局周二減低聯邦基金利率四分三厘,新利率是三厘半。美國聯儲局表示,由於經濟前景轉弱,需採取行動。聯儲局同時把貼現率減至四厘,減幅亦是四分三厘。紐約股市初段仍然急跌,道指跌逾四百點。





TVB News:華府的挽救經濟措施,市場反應不理想,觸發環球股市下挫。

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歐洲開市早段急跌。

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金管局總裁任志剛就說,不希望市場人士,抱著世界末日的心態。後市問四叔、五叔、六叔。

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環球股市第二日大跌,港股跌勢今日更急。

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深滬股市也大跌,超過百分之七,有內地學者認為,美國經濟衰退,中國出口必受影響。

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財政司司長曾俊華就說,本港市場基調仍然良好。

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美國聯儲局為了挽救經濟,大幅減息四分三厘,本港主要銀行都跟隨。 恒指勁升2400點,收復部份失地。

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香港主要銀行,都跟隨美國減息四分三厘。 香港會出現『零』利率。

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申延閱覽:我的舊文
再談美國次按風暴
次按 Secondary Mortgage
美聯儲局維持利率不變
通漲的惡夢
上海深圳股市下挫




6 comments:

新鮮人 said...

這篇結尾是一遍憂民生活在水深火熱的論調,
但不是時常可以見到的,
我十分之欣賞,
不過你應該不算是"基層打工仔"喎,
如果你是,
那麼那些月入一萬左右的是什麼呢?? :p

the inner space said...

新鮮兄:

我冇轉舦吖! 你睇返我的舊文,全部都都是同一論調, 以前是,現今也是。

全部『同一論點』我是基層打工仔,生活在水深火熱的通漲之間,得不到政府任何優惠。

衣、食、住、行, 頭果兩項,我可以『節衣縮食』,尾果兩項,冇得再縮再節了。

公屋、居屋,我唔合資格, 啲月入一萬左右可以入住公屋,可以申請居屋,住得遠有乘車優惠,『住和行』都有政府幫助。

我一啲都冇吖,咪使講話我食豉椒炒魷,連申請公援都唔合資格。

shek said...

原來space兄屬於夾心階層的中產專業人士,納稅多卻少享福利,對你們確是有點不公平!

The Inner Space said...

Shek 兄:

歡迎來訪!

最慘是,我不能算中產階級,我是基層打工仔,
如果勉強要說是,就是最底層的邊沿中產。
中產啲義務就受嗮,中產啲利益就完全未得到。
比起中產夾心層,更加悲慘!

xiao zhu said...

悲慘? 嘩,呢兩個字真係唔好亂咁用呀。

the inner space said...

小朱姐:
通貨膨漲基層打工仔購買力下降啲錢唔見使
受到更多更大更強生活壓力。