「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

美國 USA's Debt Ceiling 國債上限 Federal Budget 聯邦預算

美國 USA's Debt Ceiling 國債上限 Federal Budget 聯邦預算



四年多前 的 Monday, May 16, 2011 嗜悲 寫了篇 網誌:你用膳 我付鈔?


首個 paragraph:
先看看拾四萬三千億美元有幾多個零:US$14,300,000,000,000(拾四位數字)折算約港幣 HK$114,400,000,000,000 這是美國政府暫時負債數字。


雖然美國國會參眾兩院都已經被 共和黨 以大多數控制,還有已經辭職的 共和黨領袖眾議院議長 博納先生(John Boehner)House speaker,因為尚未找到接班人,可能要延遲下崗時間表,美國的國債上限又到期,又需要批准超越上限指標。


事隔 4年今次是 十八萬一千億美元:US$18,100,000,000,000(拾四位數字)折算約港幣 HK$144,800,000,000,000 這是美國政府暫時負債數字,請緊記著有幾多個 0 zero 零(有 11 個 zero 0 零)。


請先讀讀 維基百科 Wikipedia:United States debt ceiling


【維基百科】The United States debt ceiling or debt limit is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be issued by the US Treasury, thus limiting how much money the federal government may borrow.

The debt ceiling is an aggregate figure which applies to the gross debt, which includes debt in the hands of the public and in intra-government accounts. (About 0.5% of debt is not covered by the ceiling.)

Because expenditures are authorized by separate legislation, the debt ceiling does not directly limit government deficits. In effect, it can only restrain the Treasury from paying for expenditures and other financial obligations after the limit has been reached, but which have already been approved (in the budget) and appropriated.

When the debt ceiling is actually reached without an increase in the limit having been enacted, Treasury will need to resort to "extraordinary measures" to temporarily finance government expenditures and obligations until a resolution can be reached.

The Treasury has never reached the point of exhausting extraordinary measures, resulting in default, although on some occasions, Congress appeared like it would allow a default to take place. If this situation were to occur, it is unclear whether Treasury would be able to prioritize payments on debt to avoid a default on its bond obligations, but it would at least have to default on some of its non-bond payment obligations. A protracted default could trigger a variety of economic problems including a financial crisis, and a decline in output that would put the country into an economic recession.

Management of the United States public debt is an important part of the macroeconomics of the United States economy and finance system, and the debt ceiling is a constraint on the executive's ability to manage the U.S. economy. There is debate, however, on how the U.S. economy should be managed, and whether a debt ceiling is an appropriate mechanism for restraining government spending.



一旦國會未能通過國債上限,美國聯邦政府 Federal Government 的機構就要停工,最記得是 紐約自由神像 Statue of Liberty 需要關閉,令到無數遊客望像輕嘆!!!


美國政府是靠借渡日,這是不爭的事實 nobody can deny it,不過總是每次都是總會通過,只是 共和黨 與 民主黨 經過角力一番,互相找到想要得到的利益,結果就會遲早都通過 the ceiling 增加上限。因為這是個死症無論 republicans 或 democrates 上台,都無法 扭轉 減去 大到 11個 zero 的超巨型國債。


如今是 民主黨總統 共和黨國會,所以發生爭拗各取所需,換轉 一旦 總統 和 國會兩院 都屬同一黨派,就有國會議員之間分裂成派別,讚成 反對 者都是想找到政治上的利益,總之就是各取所需之後,the ceiling 增加上限,每隔一段時間給政棍們玩玩把戲而已,外人看來只是屬於美國國會 scheduled event 既定項目。


美國國會另一個爭拗點就是 Federal Budget 聯邦預算


又請先讀讀 維基百科 Wikipedia: United States federal budget


【維基百科】The Budget of the United States Government often begins as the President's proposal to the U.S. Congress which recommends funding levels for the next fiscal year, beginning October 1 and ending on September 30 of the year following. The fiscal year is named for the year in which it ends. However, Congress is the body required by law to pass appropriations annually and to submit funding bills passed by both houses to the President for signature. Congressional decisions are governed by rules and legislation regarding the federal budget process. Budget committees set spending limits for the House and Senate committees and for Appropriations subcommittees, which then approve individual appropriations bills to allocate funding to various federal programs.

If Congress fails to pass an annual budget, a series of Appropriations bills must be passed as "stop gap" measures. After Congress approves an appropriations bill, it is sent to the President, who may sign it into law, or may veto it (as he would a budget when passed by the Congress). A vetoed bill is sent back to Congress, which can pass it into law with a two-thirds majority in each chamber. Congress may also combine all or some appropriations bills into an omnibus reconciliation bill. In addition, the president may request and the Congress may pass supplemental appropriations bills or emergency supplemental appropriations bills.

Several government agencies provide budget data and analysis. These include the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Treasury Department. These agencies have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, primarily driven by an aging population and spending for healthcare programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. In the short-term, the annual deficit returned to its historical average relative to the size of the economy in fiscal year 2014 (around 3% GDP) and is projected to remain around that level until 2019 before slowly rising.



Let’s take a look 2014 Spending and Receipts (Per Wikipedia)
閱讀 2014 的 收入 與 支出(維基百科)



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Note: CBO represents congressional budget office


Year 2014:Receipts 收入 3021B vs 3504B Spendings 支出
有興趣者可以點擊 這裡 讀讀 CBO 的 一百八十多頁 PDF 文件


2014 CBO 預算 最大大份的 Social Security 即是福利,另一大大份是 Health Care 也是福利,兩樣總佔有 48% 即是一半的 Total Spending 支出。國防預算 Defense Department 與 Non Defense Discretionary 相若,不過 單單 看利息支出就已經 229B 佔總支出 6%。須知 US$229B 可能是很多中型國家幾年or十年的總收入了,遑論窮國可能 100年都沒有用到 229B 咁多錢。



至於今年的 預算 budget 和 國債上限 debt ceiling,更加是 民主 共和 兩黨的爭拗 焦點,即將卸任 的 博納(John Boehner) 有傳出 瑞安 (Paul Ryan),願意繼任為美國共和黨眾議院領袖 House speaker 做議長,作為領袖必須承擔。


23:40 HKT October 27, 2015 讀到這篇 CNN 美國新聞網的報導:Budget deal divides Hill Republicans


看來 共和黨 即將卸任 House speaker 博納(John Boehner) 和 繼任者 瑞安(Paul Ryan)已經和 民主黨 傾掂數 。。。。。


【CNN】Congressional leaders and the White House reached a major deal Monday to avoid a potential fiscal calamity, but not before many Republicans were left fuming that their party leadership had given too much away to their Democratic adversaries.

The two-year agreement, which would raise domestic and defense spending by $80 billion and lift the national borrowing limit until March 2017, could be voted on by the House as soon as Wednesday -- the same day the GOP is expected to nominate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, to replace retiring Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, as House speaker.

The deal prompted a tense session among House Republicans Monday night in the basement of the Capitol.

The final details were ironed out late into the night Monday, including cuts to the Social Security disability program and to Medicare. But the deal was the product of weeks of negotiations led by Boehner, who is furiously trying to take the divisive fiscal issues off the plate for Ryan before his successor takes office. If the deal passes, Ryan could have a clear path to do his job without the fiscal brinksmanship that damaged Boehner's speakership.

Still, the private talks and the frantic effort to push the measure into law only prompted sharp criticism from many House and Senate Republicans, who contended that Boehner gave away too much in the name of getting a deal.

Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, strongly objected to the deal.

"We're not just here to take commands," Amash said. "People back home expect us to participate in the process. I hope that Paul Ryan will let us know how he feels about the process."

Ryan, who is the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, deliberately took a low profile and refused to weigh in on the deal, declining to comment to reporters and not saying a word about it during a private meeting with fellow House Republicans.

At that meeting, however, the tension was rife.

Ryan will face 'monumental obstacles' as speaker

Louisiana Republican Rep. John Fleming told reporters Boehner essentially "threw committee chairmen under the bus" and suggested this big deal was being dropped on members now because the committees failed to do their work.

But, in Fleming's telling, House Budget Committee Chairman Tom Price, R-Georgia, pushed back, saying that he was in fact working on fiscal reforms but was told by leadership to stand down.

Roughly 10 House conservatives got up and complained in the meeting about the process of cutting a major deal and rushing it to the floor without going through regular order, lawmakers said.

Rep. Walter Jones, a conservative from North Carolina, said he still was waiting on the details -- but added that he "would not be blackmailed" into voting for a debt limit increase.

Across the Capitol, the complaints were just as sharp.

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina said, "It's too early to tell (but) I'm leaning no" on the budget deal.

"I'm not necessarily in a position where I think it's in the best interest of our country," he said.

Ryan on budget talks: 'I think the process stinks'

Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn, the No. 2 in his conference, added: "It's a mixed bag, there is no question about it. I don't think you'll hear anybody popping any champagne corks."

While there is consternation in the ranks, many expect there will still be ample support from Democrats -- and a large enough number of Republicans -- to pass the deal later this week. That's largely because the bill would increase defense spending to alleviate the pain felt by across-the-board spending cuts known as sequestration, enough to win the backing of the sizable number of GOP defense hawks.

But Sen. John McCain says he will support the deal, even though it is $5 billion short on defense funding in 2016 and more than that in 2017.

"I think it is saleable," he told reporters after leaving a Senate GOP Conference meeting.

The product was the result of weeks of negotiations between Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. The bill would raise spending caps by $80 billion -- $50 billion in the first year and $30 billion in the second year -- divided equally between defense and domestic programs.

Even though Ryan's fingerprints aren't on the deal -- a deliberate move by the presumptive speaker and Boehner -- the framework of the agreement is very similar to the two-year budget deal he crafted in 2013 when he chaired the budget panel with his Democratic counterpart, Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington.

The new spending under the accord would be offset by sales from the strategic petroleum oil reserve, use of public airwaves for telecommunications companies and changes to the crop insurance program — among other measures.

Moreover, the deal would spread out increases in Medicare premiums over time so beneficiaries don't feel them acutely. It would extend the 2% cuts scheduled for Medicare to extend an additional year.

It would also overhaul the Social Security disability trust fund in an attempt to prevent a 20% reduction in cuts to benefits. The $5 billion in savings would come from redistributing payroll benefits, not cutting them, sources said.

The plan includes more money for the Pentagon's overseas contingency account, and it would repeal a provision in Obamacare forcing workers to automatically enroll in employer-sponsored health care.

Despite the GOP concerns, if Pelosi agrees to back the package, and Boehner can deliver a large segment of his conference, it could be enough to overcome opposition from conservative factions.

Opinion: How Ryan can outlast the House Freedom Caucus

Rep. Richard Hudson, R-North Carolina, said that "big broad strokes" were presented to members Monday night "that all sounded wonderful and maybe even too good to be true."

Indeed, many GOP lawmakers in both sides of the Capitol were disappointed that party leaders couldn't get more from the White House by making such a huge concession -- to raise the national debt limit for longer than a year -- especially since this issue has been so contentious during Boehner's nearly five years as speaker.

"I have some concerns," said Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio. "You hope that in a debt limit context that you actually reduce spending. That's the idea to -- as you raise the debt limit, deal with the underlying debt crisis that we have."

But the deal may ultimately pass because lawmakers realize they have little choice as they stare at a potential default next week.

"It's better than no deal at all," said Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Georgia.



週三將會有宣布,除了 瑞安 接任成為 house speaker 議長之外,還會宣布兩黨達成的兩年協議,如無意外將會如下:

The two-year agreement, which would raise domestic and defense spending by $80 billion and lift the national borrowing limit until March 2017, could be voted on by the House as soon as Wednesday -- the same day the GOP is expected to nominate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, to replace retiring Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, as House speaker.



以上的所謂協議,其實是美國國會兩黨都無法不繼續去借,故此達成增加國債上限至 2017年 3月,同時國防的預算將繼續錄逐增加。就在過去的昨天 27日,美國派遣 導彈驅逐艦(USS Lassen)拉森號,到中國南海有人島礁 12海哩範圍以內游弋,旨在挑釁中國底線。


【CNN】美軍拉森號軍艦駛近中國在南海人工島礁的12海里範圍內,中國外交部回應指,依法對美方艦艇進行監視、跟蹤和警告,並對有關行為表示強烈不滿和堅決反對。

外交部發言人陸慷表示,正如中方多次強調的,中國對南沙群島及其附近海域擁有無可爭辯的主權,中國在南海的主權和相關權利,是在長期的歷史過程中形成,為歷代中國政府所堅持。中方在自己的領土上開展建設,是主權範圍內的事,不針對、不影響任何國家,不會對各國依國際法在南海享有的航行和飛越自由造成任何影響。

他又指,中方堅決反對任何國家以航行和飛越自由為名,損害中國主權和安全利益。中方堅定維護自己的領土主權、安全及合法、​​正當的海洋權益。對於任何國家的蓄意挑釁,中方都會堅決予以應對。中方將繼續嚴密監視有關海空情況,並根據需要採取一切必要措施。

中方強烈敦促美方認真對待,立即糾正錯誤,不得採取任何威脅中方主權和安全利益的危險、挑釁行為,恪守在領土主權爭議問題上不持立場的承諾,以免進一步損害中美關係和地區和平穩定。




自第二次世界大戰之後,美國這隻 ”無形之手“ 無時無刻 Unintentional to play a part 的幕後黑手,繼續在全球指指點點,如今更把第二次大戰發動太平洋戰爭的死敵,偷襲珍珠港的日本人擁抱,並推出來當爛頭卒,劍指當年的盟友中國。


美國國內累積國債有 11 個零,達到 十八萬一千億美元:US$18,100,000,000,000(拾四位數字)折算約港幣 HK$144,800,000,000,000 這是美國政府暫時負債數字,請緊記著有幾多個 0 zero 零(有 11 個 zero 0 零),若不計那 一千億,十八萬億 總共有 12 個 zero 0 零。


香港的外匯基金 Exchange Fund reserve,有幾多百千億投資買了 美國政府 federal debts 國債呢?可知您我都有份支持美國人延續其 霸權主義。中國從美國賺到多年的貿易順差,也是有部份投資買了 美國政府 federal debts 國債,卻換來美國軍方海軍有 budget,派來 拉森號 導彈驅逐艦 到 中國南海 攪攪震。


難道美國的智囊真的是舉世無敵?美國靠借延續霸權,縱使全世界條氣唔順,但卻又奈美國唔何。俄羅斯 的普京 就曾經批評
Putin says:US a 'parasite' on world economy 世界經濟的寄生蟲。


每次世界某地方出現危機,美元就會成為避難所,只要美國繼續週圍攪攪震,美國人到處製造創造捏造危機,美元就可以安枕無憂,讓美國靠借延續霸權 萬試萬靈 萬壽無疆 。。。。。。美國 USA's Debt Ceiling 國債上限 Federal Budget 聯邦預算,兩黨較勁只是國內一年一度的 scheduled event 指定節目!!!




伸延閱覽:
United States debt ceiling 維基百科
United States federal budget 維基百科
Budget deal divides Hill Republicans CNNm.com
外交部:依法監視、跟蹤及警告美艦 明報新聞網



我的舊文:
你用膳 我付鈔?
1,000,000,000,000 就是一萬億嘞!
霸權主義 耀武揚威
霸權主義 恃機凌人
美國靠借延續霸權
世界經濟的寄生蟲




《For your attention 懇請垂注》
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