「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Thursday, November 15, 2012

隔代欽點接班人

隔代欽點接班人



鄧小平 平定六四天安門民運,捧了上海幫的 江澤民 上前台,自己繼續垂簾聽政,以中共軍委主席控制局面,並且欽點了 胡錦濤 為江後的接班人,之後才交出軍權。


十年前江下胡上,江澤民 效法 鄧小平,繼續留任中共軍委主席多一些時間,到了隔代欽點了 胡後的接班人 習近平,才交出軍權。去年傳出 江澤民 病重消息,攪到本港的 ATV 誤報了死訊後,江澤民 卒之露面於人前,粉碎他去世的傳言,更穩定了 習近平 接班之途。


如今,胡錦濤 的朝代已近尾聲,傳出 胡錦濤 今次將會全退也稱裸退,不再效法前兩代,繼續以軍委主席控制軍隊,沒有垂簾聽政。習近平 這位太子黨,中共元老 習仲勛 的兒子,接班成為中共、中國、解放軍的第一把手,經已成為定局。


不過,傳言內蒙古書記 胡春華 已內定在「十九大」,以新王儲身份晉升政治局常委。


【有線新聞】中共十八大新星,可數內蒙自治區書記胡春華,其經歷與胡錦濤相似,曾在西藏長期工作,亦擔任過共青團高層,因此有「小胡錦濤」之稱。

現年四十九歲的胡春華,北京大學畢業後,主動到西藏工作近二十年,他在二十四歲時便已出任西藏的共青團委副書記,四十三歲時調任共青團中央書記處第一書記,成為當時最年輕的政部級官員。

二零零八年北京奧運前,胡春華調往河北,成為全國最年輕省長,惟短短半年間,他先後遇上三鹿毒奶粉事件、國際金融海嘯等重大危機。毒奶粉事件後,國家質檢總局局長李長江引咎辭職,但胡春華並無受影響,翌年更升任內蒙自治區黨委書記。

胡春華主政內蒙後,去年發生內蒙牧民因抗議礦場污染草場而破撞死事件,部份地方示威更演變成警民衝突,令一向較平靜的內蒙,亦跟新疆、西藏相同,成內地維穩的重點地區。

雖然胡春華主政的地方,接二連三發生大事件,但他被外界視為胡錦濤的隔代指定接班人,一般相信這些負面消息無礙仕途。 (看片)



這位儲君需要等到十九大才能確立,暫時我們知道七位中央政治局常委,亦即是權力中心有:


首席:習近平 (當選後發言 全文

其他(順序):李克強、張德江、俞正聲、劉雲山、王岐山、張高麗。


【有線新聞】中共十八屆一中全會在北京結束,選出七名政治局常委,習近平當選中共總書記與中央軍委主席。會後,習近
平帶領政治局常委見記者。

習近平在當選總書記後,向記者發表講話,他強調新領導班子對民族、人民和黨的責任,包括令人民有更美好的生活,以及從嚴治黨,解決貪污腐敗等問題。

習近平的講話以責任作為主題。他表示近代以來,中華民族歷經磨難,到了最危險的時候,是中共令到民族復興,走向繁榮富強。他又指,要以人民向往美好生活的訴求作為奮鬥目標。(看片)




如無意外,這七位以 習近平 為首的先生們,將於未來十年肩負起中國十三億人口的命運黨運和國運,更要在兩岸四地人民和海外華裔之間,發揮他們的智慧,為中華民族在地球村,繼續發熱發光!




後記:

中國自上古的 堯、舜、禹 的禪讓後,就封建制度成立,夏商周和之後歷代的統治者,都是沿用世襲制度稱為朝代。


【維基百科】中國上古時期的禪讓制度,最早記載於《尚書》之中,但其真實性一直存在爭議。是中國上古時期推舉部落聯盟首領或帝王讓位給別人的一種方式,即部落各個人表決,以多數決定。

相傳堯為部落聯盟領袖時,四岳推舉舜為繼承人,堯對舜進行三年考核後,使幫助為事。堯死後,舜繼位,用同樣推舉方式,經過治水考驗,以禹為繼承人。禹繼位後,又舉皋陶為繼承人,皋陶早死,又以伯益為繼承人,最後族人擁戴禹之子啟為王。

這是部落聯盟推選領袖的制度,史稱「禪讓」。據說首領要躲在樹林中,然後由族人擁戴他出來。但另一種說法是,禪讓制只是到禹之子啟就終止了,他建立第一個朝代夏朝。



夏商周之後,因為周太子未能控制諸侯,轉為春秋戰國群雄割據各自稱霸局面,秦統一後有劉氏的漢朝,三國後又晉朝,跟著中原大混亂,五胡亂華成立十六國,發展到南北朝時代,最後又歸於隋朝,之後有:唐,五代十國,宋,元,明,清;最後民國成立。


【維基百科】中國在1912年建立民國以前,最高統治權力是以家族世襲為主的,這些世襲王族的更替構成了中國朝代。各朝代以「王」或「皇帝」為最高統治者,因為世襲相承,常稱為「家天下」。

定都於中原的各個民族建立的朝代或政權,通常稱為中原王朝;由中原以外的民族建立的政權,則依其進入中原統治的方式而稱為征服王朝或滲透王朝。



民國成立不久又發生日本侵華,日本投降不久,又發生國共內戰,最後中共取得中國大陸,國民黨退守台灣。加上 1997年香港回歸,1999年澳門回歸,成為現時的兩岸四地的局面。


美國剛剛選出新一屆總統 by election,中國也剛剛宣布新一屆的國家主席 by installation;意想不到積極發展有中國特式的社會主義,如今演化出一種隔代欽點領導人的制度。



後後記:
外國傳媒普遍用 installed 來形容中國新的領導班子。


【The week UK】XI JINPING - pronounced Shee Chin Ping - has been installed as the new leader of China and will rule the world's most populous country for the next ten years. But who is he and what can the West expect from him?

The 59-year-old, who was anointed as head of the Communist Party in Beijing today, is a so-called 'Princeling', the son of one of the original Chinese communist revolutionaries.

But although he grew up in the relative luxury of Zhongnanhai, the party's walled compound in Beijing, he also experienced extreme poverty after his father, Xi Zhongxun, fell out with Chairman Mao in 1962, and the young Xi was exiled to the country where he lived among peasants for seven years.

The contradictions of his childhood appear to have continued into adulthood. He rose slowly though the party ranks and is regarded as a "cautious reformer" but has also been accused of "zealous persecution" of dissidents when he was governor of Zhejiang in 2002 by human rights groups.

He is seen as a charismatic and open leader but, according to The Daily Telegraph, Xi "has been opaque about his beliefs or policies, whether economic or political".

Whatever his leadership brings, Xi is likely to be more memorable to Western observers than his anonymous predecessor, Hu Jintao.

"Standing over 6ft tall, he is confident and affable," says The Guardian. "He boasts a ready smile and a glamorous second wife – the renowned People's Liberation Army singer Peng Liyuan. He has expressed his fondness for US war movies and, perhaps more surprisingly, praised the edgy independent film-maker Jia Zhangke."

Sky News even predicts that his current wife, who is "more famous than he is", will be "far more of an American-style first lady" than any of those who have gone before.

Xi has a daughter who is studying at Havard. He has also travelled widely in the West. His first wife lives in London.

But while’s well travelled, he does not always like what he sees of the world beyond his borders. The Guardian notes that his "most-quoted remark to date" came during a trip to Mexico in 2009.

"There are some well-fed foreigners who have nothing better to do than point fingers at our affairs," he announced. "China does not, first, export revolution; second, export poverty and hunger; third, cause troubles for you. What else is there to say?"

Xi will head up a ruling elite of seven men, but only he and his colleague Li Yuanchao will serve more than one five-year term.



上網查字典:Install 多解作”安裝“ 也有解作“任命”! 這都有由上一代做決定的意思!



伸延閱覽:
胡春華被視為胡錦濤隔代接班人 有線新聞
政治局常委名單公布 有線新聞
禪讓制 維基百科
中國朝代 維基百科
What do we know about Xi Jinping, China's new leader? The Week UK



我的舊文:
我的政治 101.0
我的政治 101.1



6 comments:

Haricot 微豆 said...

SBB:

For several thousand years, China was able to follow its own traditional political process because the Middle Kingdom was generally successful in isolating itself from foreign influence. Even when the empire was invaded, the invaders were eventually assimilated.

However, the accelerated pace of globalization in terms of trade, investment, technology, conflicts, health, environment, etc, will probably invalidate a straight line extrapolation of the past into the future.

Even with the great firewall of China and other state-controlled communication measures, I am not sure if the Middle Kingdom's virtual border will remain impermeable to foreign political ideas and influence.

Grooming the next generation of political successors is actually not a bad idea. The issue is whether the selection/appointment process is merit-, ideology-, power struggle-, and/or princeling-based.

Haricot 微豆 said...

SBB:

I have linked my recent post at lotusandcedar.blogspot.com to your blog article here.

Ebenezer said...

新皇朝將面對的挑戰將不少,無論在經濟或是在軍事上,都將會有一場場大丈在前面等著去打。

the inner space said...

Thank you very much Hari Big Brother for your insight about recent chinese government installation by appointment by ex-official!


據說李克強先生英語了得,他曾在香港大學用英語演說,李同志正是文革後,恢復高考第一批取錄入大學的青年,如今他平步青雲,僅排在習近平之後,其他六人都沒有出國留學的資歷,至於張德江到北韓唸書算不算呢?

改革開放三十年,最初出國留學的學生,至今都已經合適年齡,學以致用可當重任,我留意到中央權力核心,暫時還沒有海歸派入局。

反觀台灣的馬英九取得臺灣大學法律學士後,出國留學,分別取得紐約大學法學碩士,和哈佛大學法學博士。宋楚瑜畢業國立政治大學外交系,服完兵役後赴美國深造,並獲加州大學柏克萊分校國際關係碩士學位,又在加州羅耀拉大學進修,最後在華盛頓喬治城大學,獲得政治系哲學博士資格。蔡英文大學就讀國立臺灣大學法律系,畢業後於美國康乃爾大學取得法學碩士,並於英國倫敦政治經濟學院取得法學博士。

Hari 兄用 permeable 這個詞彙,依我看來中共中央還是滴水不漏,嚴防海歸派中藏有西方安插的“和平演變”分子!

the inner space said...

另 多謝微豆兄連結點擊次數必有增長!

the inner space said...

以便兄:新一屆的七位中央政治局常委,看來會蕭規曹隨,維穩經費比國防經費開支還要高,並將會效法蔣介石的先安內才攘外,中國繼續韜光養晦!

美日俄只要暗中支援,國內的反動派攪屎,就可以高枕無憂!