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「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

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Thursday, October 02, 2008

負利息時代



與其話雷曼兄弟爆煲,拖累全球,不如說是美國的監管機構,長期以來追不上市場,缺乏有認知的人材,再加上官僚主義,遲遲不加強監控,畀華爾街的大鱷,撈完『粗嘢』之後,還要勞動納稅人出錢打救,世界上真喺冇公平嘅事。


不嬲都話:"Fine" 是對做了錯事的稅款,而 "Tax" 就是做了對事的罰款!(A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing right. )


當年的垃圾債劵 junk bonds 攪到美國經濟一團槽,但這是 balance sheet items,容易畀 核數師、watch dog、監管機構發覺。華爾街啲大鱷,就攪出一些 derivatives,祇有 obligations 而冇實質存貸的產品,叫作 off-balance sheet items,好多金融機構買賣,而只把交易反映在 contingent liabilities 上,可以束意適當隱瞞所承受的風險。最有名的就是 加利福利亞州橙縣,縣級的 Treasurer-Tax Collector 羅拔 薛莊錯誤估計,結果在 1994年年尾,Orange County的縣政府宣告爆煲,要申請破產。


今天又有一個小道消息,美國一個地方政府,因信貸緊縮,未能得到短期債務,無法支付已發行債劵的利息,Alabama Jefferson County has told its attorneys to prepare a bankruptcy filing in case it cannot reach an agreement on how to escape from the county’s over $3 billion of bond debt.


明報專訊美國阿拉巴馬州傑弗遜郡,無法支付到期債券利息,現爭取更多時間,希望結束使其瀕臨破產的債務危機。傑弗遜郡曾發行 32億美元下水道工程債券,利率高達 10%,但郡政府無法支付其中 8,350萬美元的利息。如果無法與摩根大通及其他債權人,達成再融資的協議,可能就得申請破產保護。萬一該郡申請破產保護,將是 1994年來最嚴重的市政機構破產,當時加州橙郡申請破產。



信貸緊縮,因為沒有人、沒有銀行、沒有機構敢貸出款項,遍及於銀行與銀行之間,金融機構與金融機構之間,攪到折息高企,各國央行要注資,HKMA 的任五招出臺了。 銀行對客戶之間貸款收緊,香港匯豐的 prime rate 升了,個別銀行跟隨,還有說連信用卡個信貸額都可能會降低,真是草木皆兵皆賊,人心惶惶。至于有餘錢的正當市民,固然不敢把餘錢存放入銀行,更不敢投資金融工具,就情願將啲錢放在家中的月餅盒內。


好嘞!咁又畀機會啲賊仔光顧,死未? 與其畀賊仔偷去,唯有一個方法就是,存款入一些信得過的銀行,有實力、有良好記錄、由政府保證的銀行,冇利息收都好過冇哂,變成血本無歸。但銀行收到存款,又唔敢貸出去噃,咁咪攪到銀行水浸,卒之就要收『存款費』嘞,咁就真是確實的、明顯的、陽性的,『負利息時代』降臨!(通漲率高過存款利息率,是隱性的負利息。)


後話:
仍然都是個句,美國人不是善忘,美國人不是無知,美國投資者得到充分教育,只是美國投資者永遠是最聰明的,會在適當時候把燙手的山芋脫手,邊個唔好彩執到就當交學費喇!


伸延閱覽:
美國傑弗遜郡瀕臨破產 (明報~彭博)
阿拉巴馬州傑弗遜郡 (谷歌搜尋)


3 comments:

微豆 Haricot said...

According to the news paper, only two investment firm CEOs are willing to forfeit some of their bonus income which is in the million. The rest are keeping their earning and "performance" pay, thank you very much.

The Inner Space said...

Hari 兄:
There are/ were talks about investment banking CEOs.

Salesman CEO and Accountant CEO took office alternatively in past history.

推銷員總裁 和 會計師總裁 誰較優勝呢?

微豆 Haricot said...

You are right. Those were investment corporation CEOs.

Q: 推銷員總裁 和 會計師總裁 誰較優勝呢?
A: It depends on the state of the company and the business environment at any one time.

Additional info: Please see my Blog posted on Oct 10th