「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

大風:吹倒了誰?吹穩了誰? (答案:奧巴馬當選!)

大風:吹倒了誰?吹穩了誰? (答案:奧巴馬當選!)




Hurricane Sandy 帶來了 。。。。。。東歪西倒!





美國總統大選在即(美國十一月六日),兩個陣營本來鋪排好的造勢演說群眾集會,密鑼緊鼓一氣呵成的總統選舉工程,直至美國十一月五日晚深夜為止,被 hurricane sandy 打亂了時間表,但過了兩天暫息旗鼓,十一月一日兩人又再開動競選機器,開足馬力作出最後衝刺!


兩位候選人的競選團隊,都要在短時間內,調整少於一週的 itinerary 日程表,兩人要恰如其份,扮以救災和善後災民災情為先 。。。。。。。


奧巴馬:The role as the president and leadership

The optics of leadership during a disaster CNN
Obama vows relief for Sandy victims (Video) CNN


【CNN】As Sandy took aim at the East Coast, President Barack Obama discarded campaign events in Florida and Virginia to return to Washington and address the storm from the White House.

Mitt Romney adjusted his schedule to hit the battleground state of Ohio and direct campaign resources in Virginia and New Hampshire to focus on storm relief.

The candidates sought to balance the real threat of a killer storm against the need to squeeze out any last-minute advantages in battleground states ahead of next Tuesday's vote.

For the next few days, routine campaigning may be put on the shelf. This week, it may all be about who can behave the most presidential.

Obama was staying put in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday, while Romney attended an event in Ohio where his campaign sought goods and other help for those in states affected by the storm.

David Gergen, a professor of public service at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, said Obama did the right thing by returning to the nation's capital as the storm approached.

People will claim he did it for political reasons, but I believe he deserves the benefit of any doubts. He did exactly what he should be doing as president," said Gergen, who is also a CNN contributor. "That is part of the job. Presidents are expected to lead in a time of crisis."

The candidates are treading carefully in dealing with the storm's political fallout. Both the president and Romney canceled more than a dozen campaign events since Saturday so as not to appear insensitive, chew up resources and otherwise get in the way of storm preparations.

For the moment, the political optics may favor Obama, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

"The better the response the better Obama is going to look," Sabato said. "The worse the response ... the worse he's going to look. This presidential moment could help or hurt him."

Obama signed disaster declarations for New York and New Jersey, which were hit by severe flooding and wind damage, as well as other states and the District of Columbia. Virginia was the lone battleground state in Sandy's path.

The White House said that Obama would remain in Washington on Wednesday as well to monitor the storm response and would not participate in campaign events scheduled for Ohio.

Obama administration officials stressed they would work with states to ensure disaster aid is available for the millions affected by the storm.

A White House official said Obama told officials that he wants them to think creatively about ways to help states hit by power outages affecting at least seven million people throughout the mid Atlantic region.

"I want everyone leaning forward on this. I don't want to hear that we didn't do something because bureaucracy got in the way," Obama said, according to the official.

Obama has received briefings right along by Federal Emergency Management Agency officials and held a meeting in the White House situation room before reading a statement to reporters on Monday as the storm approached. He said it would be a "difficult storm."

Romney also turned his attention to Sandy during a campaign event in Ohio on Monday, saying "our hearts and prayers" were with those in her path.

"A lot of people are going to be facing some real tough times as a result of Sandy's fury," Romney said in Avon Lake, Ohio.

Romney called off a Monday night campaign event in Wisconsin, and sent vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan in his place to another in Florida. But his continued campaigning in Ohio may not be seen as a issue.

"As long as he is in states where weather is not a problem, I don't see any problem with him campaigning," added Gergen, who is also the director of the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School. "He really has no role in trying to deal with this storm."

Romney's campaign late Monday night announced that an event scheduled for Tuesday in Kettering, Ohio, had been rebranded as a "storm relief event."

"We won't be able to solve all the problems with our effort," Romney told the crowd on Tuesday. "There will still be a lot of people looking for goods even though we've gathered these things but I know that -- one of the things I've learned in life is that you make the difference you can, and you can't always solve all the problems yourself but you can make the difference in the life of one or two people as a result of one or two people making an effort."

Romney said he believed that supplies gathered at the event would be put on trucks and shipped to New Jersey where Gov. Chris Christie said on Tuesday that floodwaters had stranded hundreds of people.


Obama also canceled trips to the swing states of Florida and Colorado, far beyond the reach of Hurricane Sandy.

A shrewd move, political experts say.

"As voters, particularly those who are undecided, deliberate over whom they should support, they will watch Obama as he navigates through the storm and the post-storm clean-up," wrote Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University.

"The crisis offers an opportunity for him to act presidential in a way for which some voters are thirsting and to demonstrate the kind of command that has often been lacking," Zelizer said.

Obama's very visible posture is in stark contrast to his predecessor.

President George W. Bush's administration was widely criticized for failing to act in a timely manner during Hurricane Katrina.

"Presidents for a generation or two will remember the Bush disaster with Katrina," Sabato said. "Presidents and their staffs go out of their way to avoid another Katrina happening to their president."

Similarly, when Sen. John McCain rushed back to Washington in 2008 at the height of the banking meltdown, effectively "suspending" his presidential campaign against Obama because of the "historic crisis in our financial system," the move was seen as odd and impulsive at a time when steady leadership was needed.

On the other hand, Obama's handling of the financial crisis -- appearing masterful while McCain appeared confused, marked a turning point in the 2008 presidential race, political experts say.

Both campaigns are keenly aware of how it looked.

Romney was in a tricky position. He dialed back heavy campaigning and steered clear of pontificating on recovery efforts.

"Romney can't do anything but express concern," Sabato said.

Experts disagree about whether the storm will ultimately have an impact on the outcome of the election.

"My sense is that it is going to be a wash," said Gergen, who has worked for four presidents in both parties. "It won't change the outcome."

Asked at the White House on Monday if he was worried about the storm's impact on the election, Obama said he was concerned about those in harm's way and how Sandy might influence the economy.

"The election will take care of itself next week," he said.




羅姆尼:A different Role yet leadership
Romney on storm aftermath: 'People are hurting' CNN
Romney: A tiny effort makes a difference(Video) CNN

【CNN】With a week to go until Election Day and a day after superstorm Sandy slammed the East Coast, Republican nominee Mitt Romney swapped campaign rallies for a relief event in the all-important battleground state of Ohio Tuesday.

"We have heavy hearts as you know with all the suffering going on in a major part of our country. A lot of people are hurting this morning," said Romney, adding that he had the chance to speak with some of the governors from the affected areas.

The storm has killed 29 in the United States with a total of 97 deaths overall, including 67 in the Caribbean.

The former Massachusetts governor thanked supporters for their generosity and equated the Ohio crowd's relief effort to those of citizens of his home state in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Obama updated on Sandy through the night; praised by Christie. After addressing the crowd briefly, the GOP nominee hopped off a makeshift stage to glad-hand with supporters and collect items as they filed past to donate relief goods like bottled water, canned foods and fleece blankets.

Romney's campaign told reporters that a Red Cross warehouse in New Jersey was accepting the donation, and distributed a statement they attributed to the Red Cross.

"The American Red Cross appreciates the support from the Romney campaign and is working with the campaign to process this donation of supplies," the statement read. "We are grateful that both the Obama and Romney campaigns have also encouraged the public to send financial donations to the Red Cross. We encourage individuals who want to help to consider making a financial donation or making an appointment to give blood."

He did not answer questions from reporters on whether he would eliminate the Federal Emergency Management Agency as president - a topic the storm brought back into the political spotlight from the Republican primaries when Romney said he favored states taking a larger role in disaster relief.

Meanwhile, running mate Rep. Paul Ryan will stop by campaign offices in his home state of Wisconsin Tuesday to thank volunteers and collect items for storm relief efforts.

President Barack Obama's campaign cancelled events for Monday and Tuesday, flying back to Washington, D.C. to monitor the storm, as well as campaign events for Wednesday in Ohio.



Hurricane Sandy 帶來了“危”與“機”!當兩人以為 Sandy 的救災工作,可以交給 FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency)和 州政府之際,重災區卻突然受到寒流襲擊,氣溫急降到零下一度,單在紐約州就有 13萬沒電沒汽油沒食物的災民,加上家園盡失的災民,結果爆出怨氣!


【明報專訊】 颶風「桑迪」吹襲美加至今造成 113人死亡。紐約周一氣溫將驟降至零下 1度,仍有 13萬居民無電無暖。

紐約州和紐約市的官員紛紛警告說,數以萬計受到颶風桑迪影響的紐約人正因天氣轉冷而急需臨時住房。紐約州長科莫表示,由於天氣驟冷,許多受黨颶風「桑迪」破壞而失去供暖系統的住房已經不可能繼續住人。

紐約市長彭博稱緊急需要臨時過冬住房的人口約有 3萬到 4萬。桑迪 10月29日在美國東海岸登陸後造成大規模破壞;迄今為止在美國和加拿大至少有113人死亡,其中有 41名紐約人。



民主與共和兩黨獨大,Red States 擁護共和黨,Blue States 擁護民主黨,還有 Purple States 即是紅與藍不分上下拉鋸戰中,可稱是搖擺州份 swing states,皆因美國總統大選,紅與藍溝埋曰:Purple States。大部美國份州都是採用《Electoral College winner takes all system》(見舊文:美國總統大選:選舉人票 ~ 通吃制),來決定該州的《選舉人票 Electoral》誰屬,最終選出新一任的美國總統!


圖片來源:Electoral-vote.com



【維基百科】 The terms red states and blue states came into use in the United States presidential election of 2000 on an episode of the Today show on October 30, 2000 to refer to those states of the United States whose residents predominantly vote for the Republican Party or Democratic Party presidential candidates, respectively.

According to AlterNet and The Washington Post, the terms were coined by journalist Tim Russert, during his televised coverage of the 2000 presidential election. That was not the first election during which the news media used colored maps to graphically depict voter preferences in the various states, but it was the first time a standard color scheme took hold; the colors were often reversed or different colors used before the 2000 election.

Since 2000, usage of the term has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as liberal and those perceived as conservative. This reverses a long-standing convention, where the red symbols (such as the Red Flag or Red Star) are associated with Socialist and revolutionary movements, and conservative movements often choose blue as a contrasting color.

A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive strong support without an overwhelming majority of support for either party. Purple states are also often referred to as battleground states.



本來 奧巴馬 暫時放下選舉,先做好救災的策略得到分數,足可保着民主黨 Blue States,怎知如今受災的美國東北部州份,本都屬藍色的民主黨 Blue States,由於 Sandy 很多票站因沒有電,可能未能開放,再加上 Sandy 帶來的後遺症,會否因而變成 Purple States 或甚至居民要 punish 民主黨的 奧巴馬 突然轉色呢?




補充:
自從 2008年總統選舉後,美國各州的選舉人票都有隨著人口變化而增減,請看看下圖吧!加州沒有變仍然是最多的 55張,但佛羅里達州由 27 增加到 29,德薩斯州 34 增至 38,俄核俄州就由 20 減到 18,紐約州 31 減到 29,其他都是加減都 1張上落。以下是維基百科的圖片,將會隨著投票結果轉色。

Electoral votes by state/federal district for the elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, with apportionment changes between the 2000 and 2010 Censuses (Source: wikipedia)


Lastly but not least
If Obama wins from CNN
or
If Romney wins from CNN


香港時間週三十一月七日就會知道初步結果,who will concede first?


後記:
Romney conceded first,繼續發表了敗選演說。然後,Obama 帶埋妻女出來,支持者歡呼過後,奧巴馬 發表了勝選演說。到尾 538張選舉人票,Obama 303 Romney 206,Florida 佛羅里達州 的 29票,仍然是 too close to call!至於 popular votes 奧巴馬 (60,567,122)也是多過 羅姆尼 (57,744,506) 約二百多萬票,沒有出現贏了選票,輸掉選舉人票的情況。

以美國有三億多人口,約三分之一投了票,其餘三分之二約兩億多公民,包括了沒有登記的公民,和登記了的公民但沒有出來投票。



後後記:
差不多兩個星期後,佛羅里達州的結果出來了,奧巴馬以些微票數勝出,29張 electoral votes 盡歸奧巴馬,總數達到 332張 vs 206張!




伸延閱覽:
紐約驟冷13萬人無電無暖 雅虎新聞網
Electoral College (United States) 維基百科
Red states and blue states 維基百科



我的舊文:
茶聚閒談匯率戰
美國總統大選:選舉人票 ~ 通吃制
美國靠借延續霸權
美國的選戰殃及中國




2 comments:

Haricot 微豆 said...

SBB: Some ppl believe the storm has insignificant effect on the outcome. i.e. voters already had their mind made up.

the inner space said...

Dear HBB,welcome for your valuable input! Indeed,swing states on the North East along Sandy's path all fallen to the Blue democrats!