「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Friday, September 16, 2011

$2 billion

$2 billion

週四蛇竇吹水區,當然沒有放過這個二十億美元的 fraud,週圍挖料問點樣可以輸掉 US$2 billion,是滾雪球呢?還是一招了? 通常發覺有 fraudulent deals 會在市場立即止蝕 cut losses,這還要輸了 20億美元的差價,個盤要坐了幾大呢?10% 20% 30% leverage 。。。。。一時間流言滿天飛!

昨晚看外電還沒有甚麽端倪,AP 說尚未明朗,今早看報原來是:Delta One交易員投資在「對冲比率」等於一的金融產品,原則上不存在槓桿風險,等於買1元、最多虧損1元。

【明報專訊】阿多博利與2008年初震驚全球的法興「瘋狂交易員」凱爾維埃一樣,都是在投行的Delta One交易部任職,今次事件可算法興案翻版。阿多博利可能像凱爾維埃那樣,越過交易保護系統,私自加大注碼,以致釀成巨額虧蝕。這反映了經歷凱爾維埃的教訓及金融海嘯洗禮,銀行內部風險管理依然千瘡百孔。

Delta One交易員投資在「對冲比率」等於一的金融產品,原則上不存在槓桿風險,等於買1元、最多虧損1元。但正由於只能透過金融產品價格的輕微波幅賺錢,交易員會透過高頻交易(即短時間內極多次交易)賺取更大利潤。理論上,銀行每小時都監察交易員持倉,設下嚴格交易金額限制,控制風險。但交易員為了暴利可能鋌而走險,違規擴大自己的注碼。


另外,為了控制風險,Delta One交易員會利用不同對冲工具,保障最大注碼的投資項目,倘若自己「睇錯市」,仍可及時減少損失。有交易員指出,阿多博利可能是對冲措施做得不夠,以致無法控制虧損。

看來又是內審的 nightmare 惡夢,內控 internal control 未能防止惡夢繼續發生。需要知道除了”騙“,即是靠呃之外,若想在金融市場上賺錢,暫時只知道有 the four market roles financial markets are:Hedging,Long or Short term Investing,Speculation,and Arbitrage 四個正確合法途徑。

【AP Associated Press】LONDON - Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that a rogue trader has caused it an estimated loss of $2 billion, stunning a beleaguered banking industry that has proven vulnerable to unauthorized trades.

Police in London said they arrested a 31-year-old UBS trader, Kweku Adoboli, in the alleged fraud. UBS declined to confirm his name.

Switzerland's largest bank warned that it could report a loss for the entire third quarter as a result of the rogue trade, while shares in UBS AG plummeted 8.7 percent to 9.98 francs ($11.41) on the Zurich exchange by mid afternoon.

The case immediately evoked memories of Jerome Kerviel, the trader at French bank Societe Generale who secretly gambled away euro4.9 billion ($6.7 billion). The scale of that fraud rocked the global financial industry and prompted banks to tighten oversight rules to ensure such large sums couldn't be traded unnoticed.

The Swiss banking regulator Finma said it was in contact with UBS about the incident, which was discovered late Wednesday.

UBS provided little specific information, saying the incident was still under investigation and no client money was involved. The unauthorized transactions could cost UBS almost as much as the 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.28 billion) the bank hopes to save by cutting 3,500 jobs over the next two years.

Adoboli's profile on the professional networking site LinkedIn showed he spent the past five years working at UBS's European Equity Trading division after three years as a trade support analyst for the bank.

He graduated from the University of Nottingham in 2003 with a degree in E-commerce and digital business, the university said.

Adoboli's profile picture on Facebook showed a black-and-white photograph of an African man in his early 30s, with interests including photography, cycling and boutique wines. The profile became unavailable hours after Adoboli's arrest, indicating that someone with the password had removed it.

Banking observers immediately highlighted the similarities to the Kerviel case, which also involved a trader in his early thirties entrusted with responsibility for vast sums of money.

Some lawmakers have called for investment banks to be split off from the core business, to ensure they can't bring down the whole company in case of sudden unexpected losses.

In other trading debacles, Nick Leeson, a British trader working in Singapore for Barings Bank, made unauthorized futures trades that lost more than $1 billion and led to the venerable bank's collapse in 1995. The infamous case prompted banks worldwide to tighten their internal checks.

Leeson was released from a Singapore jail in 1998 for good behavior after serving 3 1/2 years of a 6 1/2-year sentence. He claimed he did not make a cent from his disastrous trades but Barings' liquidators sought the return of 100 million pounds on any of his earnings relating to Barings。

Barings 霸菱 ,就是因為 李森 錯誤地把 Arbitrage “日經期指 Nikkei futures” ,變成 Speculation 炒“日經期指 Nikkei futures” ,一輸就輸掉了整間公司,由荷蘭 ING group 禮貌式用£1吃掉了,查 ING 是攪保險生意起家的金融巨擘,涉足不同領域範疇的 multinational conglomerate 是也!

UBS事件至今還未有更多公開資料,Adoboli 的上司已經也被停職,內部 internal 的,還是未經證實的 vineyard gossips 還是徐徐飄至。 不過肯定做 risk management 和做 internal audit 的朋友們,以後這兩三個月要勤力啲嚕!

瑞銀事件揭銀行管理仍無牙 新浪新聞網
$2B UBS fraud loss CBS News


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

月亮 月兒 月光光

月亮 月兒 月光光


【維基百科】陰曆(英語:lunar calendar)又稱太陰曆,在天文學中與陽曆對應,指主要按月亮的月相周期來安排的曆法。它的一年有12個朔望月,約354或355日。主要根據月亮繞地球運行一周時間為一個月(29.5306天),大月30日,小月29日。




老歌的有 潘秀瓊 唱

粵語的 彎彎的月亮

國語的 彎彎的月亮

北京天使兒童合唱團的《彎彎的月亮》 點擊收聽


八 月 十 五 是 中 秋,

有 人 快 樂 有 人 愁!

八 月 十 五 是 中 秋,

有 人 吃 月 餅 有 人 食 芋 頭!

天若有情天亦老 月如無恨月常圓

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Geronimo 傑羅尼莫

Geronimo 傑羅尼莫

【維基百科】Geronimo (Chiricahua: Goyaałé, "one who yawns"; often spelled Goyathlay or Goyahkla in English) (June 16, 1829 – February 17, 1909) was a prominent Native American leader of the Chiricahua Apache who fought against Mexico and the United States for their expansion into Apache tribal lands for several decades during the Apache Wars.

Geronimo's Chronology ~ 維基百科

看上面的年表,這位印第安人 Geronimo 便是對美國白人發動恐怖襲擊組織的領袖,以血肉之軀,反抗殖民者,以血還血,申訴不公平的殖民統治,美國人打反恐戰爭,早有前科。



【維基百科】The U.S. military used the code name "Geronimo" for the operation to execute Osama bin Laden during the raid that killed the al-Qaida leader in 2011; but its use upset some Native Americans.
"Operation Geronimo" was subsequently reported to be named or renamed "Operation Neptune's Spear".

Harlyn Geronimo, Geronimo's great-grandson, Senate Commission on Indian Affairs for a hearing on racist stereotypes of Native Americans, May 5, 2011.

"Whether it was intended only to name the military operation to kill or capture Osama Bin Laden or to give Osama Bin Laden himself the code name Geronimo, either was an outrageous insult and mistake.

And it is clear from the military records released that the name Geronimo was used at times by military personnel involved for both the military operation and for Osama Bin Laden himself.

Obviously to equate Geronimo with Osama Bin Laden is an unpardonable slander of Native America and its most famous leader in history.

And to call the operation to kill or capture Osama Bin Laden by the name Geronimo is such a subversion of history that it also defames a great human spirit and Native American leader.

For Geronimo himself was the focus of precisely such an operation by the U.S. military, an operation that assured Geronimo a lasting place in American and human history."

九一一事件,經已十年!十年前由拉登領導的阿爾蓋達對美國本土,發動恐怖襲擊 terrorism attacks,之後以布殊為首的美國人,發動反恐戰爭,攻入阿庫汗企圖殲滅拉登、阿爾蓋達、塔利班。直至2011年5月,美國人卒之在巴基斯坦找到了拉登落腳地,派出王牌 海豹 Navy Seals 突擊隊,將拉登正法,行動代號就是:Geronimo 傑羅尼莫!

加拿大 Canadians CBC
US and Coalition Casualties in Afghanistan (Map) CNN
US and Coalition Casualties in Afghanistan (List) CNN

後補: 【明報20110911社評】

愈 反 愈 多 反 恐 難 言 勝

傷 人 傷 己 美 空 轉 十 年



恐怖主義擴散 年輕化成特點




美國政策不改 天天提心吊膽








十年反恐1.15萬億 夠2次推就業計劃

Geronimo 維基百科
911 維基百科
愈反愈多 傷人傷己 新浪新聞網

與狼共舞 Dances with Wolves 1990
阿凡達 Avatar
續談:Avatar 阿凡達