「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Saturday, March 15, 2014



嗜悲 自少小家中已經有養貓貓,所以一直以來都不怕貓貓,更有幅相片是 嗜悲 還著開浪褲的年紀,經已攬著隻貓貓拍照。


若 CNN 看不到 點擊 Here 這裡

乃是偶然在 CNN 見到的一個 CATs playlist,頗有趣呢!!!



嗜悲 成長過程,家中養過三隻貓貓分別是:


三次都哭得 嗜悲 死去活來,如今再不敢養貓貓!!!

過年時看了一部 日本片:陽だまりの彼女 有 上野樹里 + 松本潤 主演

看完電影還有些疑問,文章寫好了一半,不過過還是要等出 DVD 後多看幾遍確定確定,才正式登文 Stay tunned !!!

Cats CNN
陽だまりの彼女 官方網頁


Wednesday, March 12, 2014



不是談真的 “檸檬”,不過因為檸檬是酸溜溜的,所以是另有所指:
A “Lemon” is an American slang term for a car that is found to be defective only after it has been bought.

因此在北美洲有一本書,叫作:Lemon Aid,初初本來只是幫助準車主選擇二手汽車,但漸漸伸展到很多的消費品。

Phil Edmonston Lemon Aid Series:

Lemon Aid for used Cars and Trucks

Lemon Aid for SUVs Vans, and Trucks

Lemon Aid for New Cars and Minivans


Lemon Aid New Car Reviews - Luxury

Lemon-Aid for Consumers Department of Consumer Affairs

身為消費者,購買貨物就有一個風險,買賤價平價貨物,買盒蛋返來一兩隻壞了,還可以一掉了之。購買減價中價的貨品,多有 Warranty 保養期,不過包修理已經落後,因為人工貴所以多是換新的。但購買貴價品例如:一輛汽車、一層樓、一間屋,相信很難換過新的吧,那末身為消費者的你,就要冒很高的風險了。

學術方面有位先生 George Arthur Akerlof,寫了一本書:"The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism",為自己贏到了 2001年度的 諾貝爾經濟學獎。

【維基百科】"The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism" is a 1970 paper by the economist George Akerlof. It discusses information asymmetry, which occurs when the seller knows more about a product than the buyer.

"The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism", published in Quarterly Journal of Economics in 1970, in which he identified certain severe problems that afflict markets characterized by asymmetric information, the paper for which he was awarded the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize.

除了贏得諾貝爾獎外,這位先生也得了另一個大獎,就是娶了 Janet Yellen 做老婆。如今 Yellen (台灣譯作:葉倫 國內譯作:耶伦 香港如今跟從國內譯作:耶倫 以前是譯作:葉蓮)這位太太就是繼承 伯南克 之後,貴為 Chairwoman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve 美國聯邦儲備局的主席。

兩夫婦也曾共同寫書: In “Efficiency Wage Models of the Labor Market”, Akerlof and coauthor Janet Yellen (his wife) propose rationales for the efficiency wage hypothesis in which employers pay above the market-clearing wage, in contradiction to the conclusions of neoclassical economics.

回頭再讀讀 George Akerlof 的得獎文章。

【維基百科】Akerlof's paper uses the market for used cars as an example of the problem of quality uncertainty. A used car is one in which ownership is transferred from one person to another, after a period of use by its first owner and its inevitable wear and tear.

There are good used cars ("cherries") and defective used cars ("lemons"), normally as a consequence of several not-always-traceable variables, such as the owner's driving style, quality and frequency of maintenance, and accident history.

Because many important mechanical parts and other elements are hidden from view and not easily accessible for inspection, the buyer of a car does not know beforehand whether it is a cherry or a lemon. So the buyer's best guess for a given car is that the car is of average quality; accordingly, he/she will be willing to pay for it only the price of a car of known average quality.

This means that the owner of a carefully maintained, never-abused, good used car will be unable to get a high enough price to make selling that car worthwhile.

Therefore, owners of good cars will not place their cars on the used car market. The withdrawal of good cars reduces the average quality of cars on the market, causing buyers to revise downward their expectations for any given car.

This, in turn, motivates the owners of moderately good cars not to sell, and so on. The result is that a market in which there is asymmetric information with respect to quality shows characteristics similar to those described by Gresham's Law: the bad drives out the good. (Although Gresham's Law applies more specifically to exchange rates, modified analogies can be drawn.)

Gresham's Law: the bad drives out the good. 豈不就是我們常說的:「劣幣驅逐良幣」李嘉誠都出口說:「有能力嘅人唔出聲,無能力嘅人爭住做!」

繼續再讀讀 George Akerlof 的得獎文章。

【維基百科】The paper by Akerlof describes how the interaction between quality heterogeneity and asymmetric information can lead to the disappearance of a market where guarantees are indefinite.

In this model, as quality is undistinguishable beforehand by the buyer (due to the asymmetry of information), incentives exist for the seller to pass off low-quality goods as higher-quality ones. The buyer, however, takes this incentive into consideration, and takes the quality of the goods to be uncertain.

Only the average quality of the goods will be considered, which in turn will have the side effect that goods that are above average in terms of quality will be driven out of the market. This mechanism is repeated until a no-trade equilibrium is reached.

As a consequence of the mechanism described in this paper, markets may fail to exist altogether in certain situations involving quality uncertainty. Examples given in Akerlof's paper include the market for used cars, the dearth of formal credit markets in developing countries, and the difficulties that the elderly encounter in buying health insurance.

However, not all players in a given market will follow the same rules or have the same aptitude of assessing quality. So there will always be a distinct advantage for some vendors to offer low-quality goods to the less-informed segment of a market that, on the whole, appears to be of reasonable quality and have reasonable guarantees of certainty. This is part of the basis for the idiom buyer beware.

This is likely the basis for the idiom that an informed consumer is a better consumer. An example of this might be the subjective quality of fine food and wine. Individual consumers know best what they prefer to eat, and quality is almost always assessed in fine establishments by smell and taste before they pay.

That is, if a customer in a fine establishment orders a lobster and the meat is not fresh, he can send the lobster back to the kitchen and refuse to pay for it. However, a definition of 'highest quality' for food eludes providers. Thus, a large variety of better-quality and higher-priced restaurants are supported.

人生有幾多次要作出重要選擇呢?年幼時父母必代為選擇,輪到自己最大機會,就是入大學時,自己要選擇那一間大學,那一個學院書院,選修那一個科目甚麽學系,中國人多不選興趣,而是著重容易搵工搵錢的學系,還有就是單學位還是雙學位,最怕就是錯選了個 ”Lemon 檸檬“。

畢業出來要求職選入那一行,選買車揀買樓安居樂業,遲些便要揀老公搵老婆,以前興從一而終,但有很大的不明朗,驚娶錯妻嫁錯郎,害怕撿了件 “Lemon 檸檬”。如今後生的一代,先同居、之後生仔/女、最後才結婚,方為禮成,漸成風氣。

社會方面投票選舉一個市長,更甚者更高層次的選首領揀領袖。上兩次中央為香港人挑選的特首:董建華 和 曾蔭權,在香港人來說都是被人視為 “檸檬”,在第三次搵特首,中央搵來專業人士,做 Surveyor 的 梁振英 當特首,事實上是比 “檸檬” 更 “檸檬“。

讀完 維基百科 Summarized 拙要 George Akerlof 的得獎文章,其實這不就是我們香港人,即將在 2017年普選特首時,各方所面對的 Quality Uncertainty and the Political Mechanism,有人害怕會被北京又錯選了個 ”檸檬“ 給港人,而北京的考量就是出現類似 ”政黨輪替“ 在香港出現,衝擊內地的 “一黨專政”。

如今政改諮詢如火如荼,港人分裂成激進派保守派,其實雙方都是害怕,害怕 fear 就因為有不明朗 uncertainty 所造成:

Fear comes from uncertainty.
When we are absolutely certain,
whether of our worth or worthlessness,
we are almost impervious to fear.

by:William Congreve

嗜悲 是 認命派,既然在 1997年決定留港,生是香港人死也做香港的鬼,Cherries or Lemons 照啃!!!

Why “lemon” for a faulty or defective item? stackexchange.com
The Market for Lemons 維基百科
George Arthur Akerlof 維基百科
Fear comes from uncertainty brainyquote.com


Sunday, March 09, 2014



如今,正是多事之秋 。。。。。。唉!天氣仍然寒冷,今年春天特別遲來!!!

不知就裡的,沒有經常讀《明報》的,慣性誤信的讀者,可能真的會給 譚慧珠 綽號:珠珠,嚇親嚇餐死驚嚇到添。本來以為 四叔李兆基 個大仔,被授意礟轟港大民調 鍾庭耀 經已夠出位,又話要八大商會,齊齊出資另外辦一個民調機構,扭轉形勢云云!

怎知道下一天,即在週四天 珠珠 當著 中國全國人大 張委員長 德江先生 面前,臉不紅耳不赤,宣讀報告:『聲言過去一年港區人代,與《明報》加強 ”協作“,在有關欄目發表文章介紹國情,「宣傳中央大政方針」』。


明報發表聲明稱,去年港區人代羅范椒芬曾提出投稿明報,時任總編輯劉進圖講明不問作者身分均可投稿,但是否刊登由編輯視乎來稿質素及版面而決定,而「神州論壇版」去年 9月至今逾百篇文章中,只得10篇是由港區人代撰寫(見聲明全文)。

羅范提投稿 劉進圖:視乎質素


「神州論壇」至今刊人代 10文章

明報「神州論壇版」去年 9月創立至今,刊出逾百篇文章,當中有 10篇文章的作者是港區人代,包括譚惠珠、羅范椒芬、吳亮星、顏寶鈴各 2篇,蔡素玉、姚祖輝各 1篇。


可以解作:協助 + 合作 or 協議 + 合作 or 協商 + 運作

珠珠 的 與《明報》加強「協作」,在有關欄目發表文章介紹國情,「宣傳中央大政方針」。。。。不是是哪一種,卻引來來《明報》緊急作出聲明。


《明報》「神州論壇版」自去年 9月創立以來,收到包括內地、香港和海外的作者包括傳媒人、時事評論員、教授、學者,以及自由撰稿人來稿,除特邀作者外,該版對自由來稿者並無稿酬。

經本報翻查統計,在 5個多月來刊出的逾百篇文章中,作者是港區全國人大代表的共有 10篇,其中譚惠珠、羅范椒芬、吳亮星、顏寶鈴各 2篇,蔡素玉、姚祖輝各 1篇,題材涉及內地的經濟、教育、法律、扶貧、自貿區、人民幣等題材。


還有當事人 羅范椒芬,也特意出來說話澄清何謂 ”協作“ 。




羅:人代投稿 和一般人無異

稱自發在媒體發聲 中央無施壓




原來是港區人大代表投稿到《明報》,沒有慘被編輯拋給 Gigi Law (字紙籮)兼刊登出來了,就可以上報中央邀功:『「與《明報》加強 ”協作“,在有關欄目發表文章介紹國情,「宣傳中央大政方針」』,投稿被接納就是加強了 ”協作“,真的是嘆為觀止。

羅範椒芬 說可能有人為 譚慧珠 珠珠 寫講稿,但面向 全國人大委員長發言,珠珠 竟然自己事先,沒有讀過未有看過,就依稿照讀出來,負責寫稿的 ”機構“,應該是很具有權威性,令到 珠珠 毫無反對、反駁、反抗的能力吧。

看來估計推測,派來香港的 張主任 的任務(有傳他是香港市委書記),要暗中發功抓緊本港民調和輿論平台,企圖為北京和建制派造勢,可惜上任年多以來無功而還,遂授意 李二世 和 珠珠(可能包埋寫稿),在 中國全國人大 張委員長 德江先生 面前,混淆一吓視聽,主任也太低估了委員長吧。這可以用減少又緩和了,近附上一任的西環頭頭,慘被鐓冬菇調派往 澳門,明升實降的厄運。

張主任 發毛了,發矛了,發瘋了,還是 委員長 和 主任倆,都想要在中外傳媒前,show 一 騷 off 呢?不過,就太抬舉了《明報》和《港大民調》矣!!!


談起民調,嗜悲 有幸被民調機構s,抽中被電話訪問,頗長的 民調 questionnaires 問卷。

全個過程有專人發問,若有不明處,可即時作出解釋,比較容易選擇答案,還有就是較 “人性化”,完畢問卷後親切的道謝!

一開始就是一把冷冰冰的 “數碼聲音“,跟著就是發問問題,選擇答案時是:請按 1,按 2,按 3 。。。。,嗜悲 答了三題按了三次後,就決定把電話放低了!

另 師兄 email 了:

領導人放話意味轉變 PlanC 中央介入恐積重難返/文﹕李先知

【明報專訊】人大政協兩會正在北京舉行,主管港澳事務的全國人大委員長張德江先後會見港區人代、政協,談到中央對港權力,強調高度自治並非完全自治;國務院總理李克強發表政府工作報告談及港澳的部分,更是 10年來首次消失了「港人治港、高度自治」字句。






綜合政圈耳語,若說中央的 PlanB 是撤換特首梁振英由他人頂上,恐怕現時正實行的是 PlanC,即梁振英肯定可做滿任期,但中央會將他架空,直接「指揮」其他高官負責政策,如政務司長林鄭月娥負責政改,並直接跟中聯辦聯繫,雖然最後方案也經梁振英交上北京,但聞說梁振英仍很不高興;在其他大事項上,中央也會直接找相關局長商討,而立法會事項中聯辦亦會直接出手拉票,種種都反映中央對香港的「干預」愈來愈多,手愈伸愈入。


最直接的就是就近,由西環 張主任 架空 梁振英,直接指揮各問責官員,至於重大的議題,就飛上京會見港澳辦官員。記得之前幾位局長,曾專程上京被傳媒廣泛報導。

譚惠珠:人代明報「協作」寫國情 張健波:無合作 MSN 中文版
就譚惠珠:人代明報「協作」寫國情 明報聲明 MSN 中文版
羅范﹕人代與明報無協作 MSN 中文版

糞話 訓話
有冇 Plan B?