瘋人瘋語

「我離港前到過一間精神科醫院。當時有位病人禮貌地問,一個以作為世上最悠久民主政體而自傲的國家,如何能夠將此地交給一個政治制度非常不同的國家,且既沒諮詢當地公民,又沒給予他們民主的前景,好讓他們捍衞自己的將來。一個隨行同事說,奇怪,香港提出最理智問題的人,竟在精神科醫院。」彭定康 金融時報

“During a visit to a mental hospital before I left Hong Kong, a patient politely asked me how a country that prided itself on being the oldest democracy in the world had come to be handing over his city to another country with a very different system of government, without either consulting the citizens or giving them the prospect of democracy to safeguard their future. Strange, said one of my aides, that the man with the sanest question in Hong Kong is in a mental hospital.”Chris Patten Financial Times

Non Chinese literate friends, please simply switch to English Version provided by LOUSY Google Translation

Please participate in the unregistered demography survey of visitors at the right hand side bar. You are: ?

敬請參與在右下方的不記名訪客分佈調查問卷,你是: ?

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

中國是否還要迴避與美國對抗?

中國是否還要迴避與美國對抗?



中國外交部長 楊潔篪,在 華盛頓 和 美國國務卿 希拉莉 克林頓女士 會面,商討 胡錦濤主席即將訪美的細節。剛巧遇見了 奧巴馬總統 (哈哈哈!是經過安排的巧合吧!)。滑頭的 奧巴馬 當然又出出口術,說了一大串「期待胡主席到訪」,我們究竟相信幾多成呢? 大家心裡有數吧!


週六早上讀報,在明報的論壇版,有以下的翻譯文章:
(先登出原文)

How to Stay Friends With China By ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI
【New York Times Published: January 2, 2011】THE visit by President Hu Jintao of China to Washington this month will be the most important top-level United States-Chinese encounter since Deng Xiaoping’s historic trip more than 30 years ago. It should therefore yield more than the usual boilerplate professions of mutual esteem. It should aim for a definition of the relationship between the two countries that does justice to the global promise of constructive cooperation between them.

I remember Deng’s visit well, as I was national security adviser at the time. It took place in an era of Soviet expansionism, and crystallized United States-Chinese efforts to oppose it. It also marked the beginning of China’s three-decades-long economic transformation — one facilitated by its new diplomatic ties to the United States.

President Hu’s visit takes place in a different climate. There are growing uncertainties regarding the state of the bilateral relationship, as well as concerns in Asia over China’s longer-range geopolitical aspirations. These uncertainties are casting a shadow over the upcoming meeting.

In recent months there has been a steady increase in polemics in the United States and China, with each side accusing the other of pursuing economic policies that run contrary to accepted international rules. Each has described the other as selfish. Longstanding differences between the American and the Chinese notions of human rights were accentuated by the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident.

Moreover, each side has unintentionally intensified the suspicions of the other. Washington’s decisions to help India with nuclear energy have stimulated China’s unease, prompting increased Chinese support for Pakistan’s desire to expand its own nuclear energy potential.

China’s seeming lack of concern over North Korea’s violent skirmishes with South Korea has given rise to apprehension about China’s policy on the Korean peninsula. And just as America’s unilateralism has in recent years needlessly antagonized some of its friends, so China should note that some of its recent stands have worried its neighbors.

The worst outcome for Asia’s long-term stability as well as for the American-Chinese relationship would be a drift into escalating reciprocal demonization. What’s more, the temptations to follow such a course are likely to grow as both countries face difficulties at home.

The pressures are real. The United States’ need for comprehensive domestic renewal, for instance, is in many respects the price of having shouldered the burdens of waging the 40-year cold war, and it is in part the price of having neglected for the last 20 years mounting evidence of its own domestic obsolescence. Our weakening infrastructure is merely a symptom of the country’s slide backward into the 20th century.

China, meanwhile, is struggling to manage an overheated economy within an inflexible political system. Some pronouncements by Chinese commentators smack of premature triumphalism regarding both China’s domestic transformation and its global role. (Those Chinese leaders who still take Marxist classics seriously might do well to re-read Stalin’s message of 1930 to the party cadres titled “Dizzy With Success,” which warned against “a spirit of vanity and conceit.”)

Thirty years after their collaborative relationship started, the United States and China should not flinch from a forthright discussion of their differences — but they should undertake it with the knowledge that each needs the other.

A failure to consolidate and widen their cooperation would damage not just both nations but the world as a whole. Neither side should delude itself that it can avoid the harm caused by an increased mutual antagonism; both should understand that a crisis in one country can hurt the other.

For the visit to be more than symbolic, Presidents Obama and Hu should make a serious effort to codify in a joint declaration the historic potential of productive American-Chinese cooperation. They should outline the principles that should guide it. They should declare their commitment to the concept that the American-Chinese partnership should have a wider mission than national self-interest. That partnership should be guided by the moral imperatives of the 21st century’s unprecedented global interdependence.

The declaration should set in motion a process for defining common political, economic and social goals. It should acknowledge frankly the reality of some disagreements as well as register a shared determination to seek ways of narrowing the ranges of such disagreements. It should also take note of potential threats to security in areas of mutual concern, and commit both sides to enhanced consultations and collaboration in coping with them.

Such a joint charter should, in effect, provide the framework not only for avoiding what under some circumstances could become a hostile rivalry but also for expanding a realistic collaboration between the United States and China. This would do justice to a vital relationship between two great nations of strikingly different histories, identities and cultures — yet both endowed with a historically important global role.



Zbigniew Brzezinski was the national security adviser in the Carter administration.

【維基百科】Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski (Polish: Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński, pronounced [ˈzbiɡɲev bʐɛˈʑiĩ̯ski]; born March 28, 1928) is a Polish American political scientist, geostrategist, and statesman who served as United States National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981.


明報翻譯外地評論摘要
如何與中國繼續做朋友 美國《紐約時報》1月2日評論版文章
作者:布熱津斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski,美國前國家安全顧問)

【明報專訊】中國國家主席胡錦濤本月訪美,是繼30多年前鄧小平訪問之後,美中最重要的高層會面。兩國應把握這次機會,尋找雙方應該保持怎樣的積極合作關係,這才令世界得益最大。

兩國的關係愈來愈不明朗,特別是中國在亞洲引起的焦慮。最近數月,美國與中國愈來愈多罵戰,互相指控對方的經濟政策自私、違反國際規例;劉曉波獲諾貝爾和平獎,更掀起雙方人權爭拗的高潮。

雙方應該明白唇齒相依的道理
兩方也在無意間引起對方猜疑,例如華府協助印度發展核能,中國也不太關注朝鮮挑釁韓國的問題。最影響亞洲的長遠穩定是美中雙方的對抗升級至互相妖魔化。

美國應該全面檢討內政。冷戰及後冷戰的數十年,美國的內政備受忽略,也令美國要負上相當代價,美國的基建不斷退步,只是反映美國退倒的徵狀之一。中國則要以僵化的政治制度,調控過熱的經濟。

30年來,美中沒有迴避討論雙方的分歧,但雙方應該明白唇齒相依的道理,美中無法鞏固及擴大合作,全世界的利益也會受損。若美中懲罰對方,本國也會受傷害,美中應明白雙方不能獨善其身,若對方出現危機,自己也會受到傷害。

令訪問有實質義意,奧巴馬和胡錦濤應該發表聯合聲明,點出美中積極合作可發揮的潛能,及擬列一些指導原則。兩國應宣布,雙方承諾合作不只是為國家私利,而是在21世紀、國與國之間史無前例的相互倚靠之下,需要履行的道德責任。

聲明應該界定雙方共同的政治、經濟及社會發展目標,承認雙方存在的矛盾,及顯示收窄分歧的決心。聲明應該指出兩國關注的安全威脅,及承諾以合作和商議解決問題。



美國人的霸權主義在這近月來,更加表露無遺,派了第三個核子航空母艦領導的戰闘羣,來到了西太平洋,擺開準備開戰的架式,有咩企圖,路人皆見,暫且不贅!就在胡主席出訪美國前,美國防長蓋茨卻搶在週日,先到北京會晤中國的軍頭們,並得到胡主席的接見。


與其上面美國人說:『如何與中國繼續做朋友?』
我就會反問:『中國是否還要迴避與美國對抗?』


美國人在1941年受到日本人偷襲珍珠港死傷無數,美國人跟著與日本人,打過你死我活的太平洋續島戰闘,無數美國的子弟兵伏屍灘頭,用血把海水染成為深紅色,最後美國人投下兩枚原子彈落日本,才結束太平洋戰爭。當年美國為了打敗日本人,就與中國結盟,中國亦拯救了不少被日本人擊落美國戰機的飛航員。


但戰後不久,美國人就夥同原本打得你死我活的敵人~~日本人,一起在韓國土地上和中國派出的志願軍,在打了幾場熱戰。韓戰之後,美國人更夥同日本人韓國人,作出處處圍堵中國,貿易禁運等等。直到七十年代,美國人要對付由俄國人領導的蘇聯,才又派出基辛格來華,拉攏中國共同對付俄國人。


等到蘇聯自動瓦解,美國人再沒有了共同敵人時,就把剛剛崛起的中國當成假想敵,處處設防,度度關卡,傳媒又把中國人描繪成魔鬼,盡量妖魔化。其實美國人把口喺佢度,真正的是“神佢又鬼又佢”,任得佢講,甚至“有佢講冇你講”!


話就話中國不願做美國的敵人,不想和美國對抗,但事實上中國已經避無可避,美國政府一定要有一個假想敵,去團結國人,去支持她的龐大軍費預算 budget,美國剛剛多派美軍到阿富汗,那邊廂又話五年內,要 cut 國防筆窒 780億美元,但這邊廂,卻派出第三個核子航空母艦戰闘羣來到西太平洋。


一組是“華盛頓號”核子航空母艦擺在中國黃海,另一組是“列根號”核子航空母艦擺在中國南海,最遠的一組,即是第三組“卡爾文森號”核子航空母艦擺在中國東海,不計支援的機種,戰闘用途飛機多達四百餘架。就在此時此刻,美國接待 胡主席 國是訪問華盛頓,背後有甚麽企圖 secret agenda 呢?


中國是否還要迴避與美國對抗?看看現今形勢,三個核子航空母艦戰闘羣,四百餘戰機,就在中國門口會師,美國人擺開的戰闘架式,中國已經是避無可避,那就唯有面對事實,下定決心。 胡主席在華盛頓應該要“示威”還是“示弱”呢?



後記:
一天後,明報社評 發表了文章:
中美關係趨向新形態 務實抬頭對抗又合作
【明報社評】中國國家主席胡錦濤將於本月18日至21日到美國展開國事訪問,剛過去的幾天,打前站的外交部長楊潔篪在當地進行大量活動,會見美方多名高級官員,包括總統奧巴馬、國務卿希拉里、財長蓋特納、商務部長駱家輝。

同一時間,美國國防部長蓋茨今日將到中國訪問,美國朝鮮問題特使博斯沃思剛去過北京。一連串的外交活動,是為中美進一步交往鋪墊,為當前世界最重要的兩個國家保持熱絡加添潤滑油。

如今的中美關係,較諸1979年1月中美建交時期而言,複雜得多也全面得多。中美雖未至於你中有我、我中有你,但顯然不是單一關係的形態,就外貿和人民幣匯率的討論,中美一度劍拔弩張;南海諸島主權紛爭,美國被視為煽風點火的一方,挖中國牆腳。

東北亞局勢,美軍欲派出母艦入黃海,中國外交部五度警告,中國社會更出現「炮打母艦」的聲音,然而在歷數這些衝突的同時,蓋茨訪華,可望為冰凍了的中美軍方交流解套;博斯沃思訪問韓中日3國之後,朝韓炮戰後對中國提出六方會談反應冷淡的日韓,口氣有變,朝鮮於炮戰後口口聲聲不惜一戰的強硬取態也出現變化。

單一關係形態 現已不合時宜
中美兩國在多方位出現對峙及合作,是當前中美關係的特點。過去30年,中美關係是一榮俱榮、一損俱損的單一態勢關係。尋根究柢,中美當年破冰,是由於共同對抗蘇聯使然,兩國關係建設在這種平台之上,單一而脆弱,形象地說,是一棵大樹只有一條纖幼的根部,而不是深入泥土觸鬚似的根。

這樣,一旦搖晃大樹,根部抓不著泥土,只有倒下一途。因此,過往30年,中美關係就是在好與壞之間來回移動,欠缺中庸之道。這種中美關係,囿於意識形態的異同,沒有其他方面的深入交流,算不上全面,這種關係是有缺陷的。

經過30年經營,以及中國在改革開放以來的巨大變化,中美需要與往昔那種只有意識形態的關係說再見。今天,中美在民主和人權這類普世價值上的確有分歧,但這和貿易往來是兩回事,美國也不會因為中國人權問題而不同中國做生意;同一道理,若無中國居中斡旋,朝鮮不可能在炮戰後迅速放下強硬身段,表達傾向和談的態度。

若以舊日思維來看,既然人權問題談不攏,貿易和朝鮮半島也就免談。最新的情况並非如此,奧巴馬說要與胡錦濤談人權和匯率這兩個針鋒相對的課題,但朝鮮半島問題,中美勢將合作唱好這台戲~~中國安撫朝鮮,美國則暗示重開停滯兩年的六方會談意願,韓日兩國對此很難說不。這種對抗中有合作的務實中美關係,是未來一段相當長時間的主流。

當然,這都是政治現實的結果,中國需要美國的巿場和高科技產品,儘管中國在另一條戰線~~歐洲~~全力開拓,平衡間中出現波動的對美關係,然而美國在這一刻仍然是不能取代;美國則需要中國吸納美國貨和在金融領域的合作,奧巴馬面對沉睡不起的本國經濟,高調的外交語言不可能令國家從此脫身。

因此,未來中美關係會出現一種景觀﹕人權問題各自表述,匯率和貿易上互有進退,朝鮮問題則是若有默契。總的戰略而言,美國將視中國是競爭對手,而非前幾年北京一廂情願的戰略伙伴,中國也清醒認識美國在中國未來發展路上是一頭攔路虎;但是,若無北京配合,朝鮮半島惡戰可期,美國產品則無法進入中國,奧巴馬由出口帶動就業的承諾無從說起。

美經濟端視中國 中國需美高科技
因此,胡錦濤這次訪問的意義不在於美方儀仗隊的21響禮炮或國宴的言笑晏晏,而是在於中美都想通過這次訪問,修補過去兩年互相對抗對兩國關係帶來的衝擊。中美關係會否由壞轉好,這次訪問可以視之為試金石,前國務院總理朱鎔基說過,中美關係,好也好不到哪裏去,壞也壞不到哪裏去,便是因為涉及的分歧和共同利益太多;關係一旦全面破壞,代價高昂得難以衡量,無法補償,對愈傾務實的兩國來說,這是下下的一著,智者所不為。




伸延閱覽:
How to Stay Friends With China Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski NYtimes.com
Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski 維基百科
如何與中國繼續做朋友 雅虎新聞網
奧巴馬與楊潔篪的「即興」 am730.com
美國國防部將在未來5年內削減780億美元的國防開支 谷歌新聞搜尋
美國派第三個核子航空母艦戰闘群到西太平洋 谷歌新聞搜尋
中美關係趨向新形態 務實抬頭對抗又合作 谷歌新聞網



我的舊文:
反華勢力
居心叵測
美帝的霸權主義



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