接受現實 原地踏步
認命者言（前篇）
林鄭月娥，袁國強，和 譚志源 的政改三人組，由 “有商有量” 到 “有根有據” ，林鄭更有 “不言而喻 ” 後來又加一句 “一錘定音”，到如今推銷：“袋著先” or “食著先”！最最最近還有這一句：
對！ 嗜悲 真的 ”有票真喺唔要！” 因為 嗜悲 也不會做橡皮圖章。
之前，林鄭月娥 在 華爾街日報 發表文章：
The central government has lived up to its commitments to the territory's people.
【WSJ】
Hong Kong this month took the first step in the procedure for constitutional reform. On July 15, Chief Executive C.Y. Leung submitted a report to the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), saying that there is a need to amend the electoral method for the 2017 chief executive election with a view to attaining universal suffrage. This took into account the report of a five-month public consultation conducted by the Task Force on Constitutional Development that I chair.
Within a month or two, the NPCSC will inform the chief executive of its decision as to whether the Basic Law can be amended to implement universal suffrage in selecting the chief executive in 2017. We expect the NPCSC to give us the green light. On this basis, we plan to launch another public consultation on more specific suggestions with a view to forging a consensus for enabling legislation to be drafted and eventually put to legislators for a vote.
Looking ahead, I offer a few observations. First, it is worth noting that universal suffrage for the selection of the chief executive was not part of the Sino-British Joint Declaration signed in 1984. The declaration refers to the selection of the chief executive by election or through consultations held locally.
It was only during the drafting of the Basic Law, promulgated in 1990, that the ultimate aim of selecting the chief executive by universal suffrage was included. In 1990, with Hong Kong still under British administration, there was not a single directly elected seat in the Hong Kong legislature.
Since Hong Kong's return to China in 1997, almost every election of the chief executive and Legislative Council has been more democratic. In 2007, the NPCSC decided that the fifth-term chief executive in 2017 could be selected by universal suffrage and that after this milestone was reached, universal suffrage for legislative elections was also possible. It is clear by its actions that the central authorities in Beijing have lived up to its commitments in the Basic Law (which is a national law of China) and are sincerely committed to greater democracy in Hong Kong.
Second, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region was established under the Constitution of the People's Republic of China. Article 12 of the Basic Law states that the Hong Kong shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic with a high degree of autonomy and directly under the Central People's Government. As such, the central authorities retain the constitutional powers and responsibilities to determine Hong Kong's political system and its pace of development.
The design of our political system, including universal suffrage, relates to the exercise of sovereignty by the state over Hong Kong as well as full implementation of the "One Country, Two Systems" framework. Amendments to the electoral method for selecting the chief executive must be passed by a two-thirds majority of the Legislative Council, receive the chief executive's consent and be approved by the NPCSC. Universal suffrage for the selection of the chief executive is not an internal matter for Hong Kong to decide on its own. It is a matter that relates closely to the relationship between the state and a local administration.
Third, in handling democratic development matters, we must strictly follow the law. This is a core value of Hong Kong.
Article 45 of the Basic Law states that "The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the chief executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures."
Legal experts, locally and in the mainland, have confirmed that the power of the nominating committee is substantive. It cannot be undermined, circumvented or "watered down" by other forms of nomination. Accordingly, the just-concluded public consultation solicited views on the size and composition of the nominating committee, the method for its formation, the procedures for its nomination of chief executive candidates, etc.
Fourth, any amendments to our electoral methods require a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Council. At the moment, no single party or affiliation of parties can deliver the 47 votes required in our 70-seat legislature. Therefore, some form of cross-party support will be necessary, and compromise will be an essential element of this.
If our upcoming political package fails to muster the required votes in the legislature, then Hong Kong's democratic development will come to a standstill, as it did in 2005 when we missed an opportunity to change the electoral methods for the 2007 chief executive and 2008 Legislative Council elections.
Such an outcome will seriously disappoint Hong Kong people and adversely affect government operations. We hope that our legislative councilors will display political courage and pragmatism to bring about change and provide our five million eligible voters with the opportunity to select the chief executive by one-person, one-vote in 2017. If change does not happen, then we have to retain the current system of selecting the chief executive through a 1,200-person Election Committee. In this regard the choice is very clear.
Fifth, let's cast an eye on the future. Many skeptics say or believe that the 2017 electoral arrangements are final. They have therefore adopted a "now or never" or "all or nothing" approach.
In line with the stated Basic Law principles of gradual and orderly progress, as well as taking stock of the actual situation in Hong Kong, it should be possible to further amend electoral arrangements in the future—for example, by improving broad representativeness of the nominating committee or the "democratic procedures" to nominate chief executive candidates for selection by universal suffrage.
At this critical juncture in Hong Kong's history, cool heads, pragmatism and the spirit of compromise must prevail. Otherwise we won't be able to take the bold first step of universal suffrage that will advance Hong Kong's democratic development. I remain wholeheartedly committed to working with our legislature and the community to devise a system for the 2017 chief executive election that is legally sound, stands a reasonable chance of gaining public and Legislative Council support, and is practical, practicable and easy to understand.
Mrs. Lam is the chief secretary for administration of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
照 林鄭 之言，散發著預計政改將不會在 立法會，得到 2/3的議員投票通過有 “篩選的政改”，如今照數還欠六票才算數夠票，即是會出現被拉倒結果，2017 特首選舉政改，將原地踏步 。。。。。。。。奇蹟不會再出現吧！
所謂 “袋著先” or “食著先” 即是接受篩選過的候選人，其實就是把以前的 “選舉委員會” ，提前改名為 ”提名委員會“，經過所謂提名程序後，再經一人一票選一個 ”特首“ 出來，這叫作：“乜普選”？
【信報】
泛民主派議員將分批與中聯辦主任張曉明會面，身兼港區人大代表的工聯會榮譽會長鄭耀棠表示，不太樂觀有什麼成果，因為最黃金時間已過去，估計人大常委就香港未來政制發展已經有內容，預料會面只會是各說各話。
鄭耀棠又批評，泛民兜兜轉轉將時間花在公民提名問題上，對於錯過了最寶貴的時間感到非常遺憾，中央已經清楚知道泛民意見，泛民不能以「意見未表達，等埋你先啦」，因為「國家不能等你」。
有指人大常委將就政改訂下保守框架，特首提名門檻將定在提名委員會過半數，鄭耀棠表示，目前這一刻沒有太大的變動，因為中央要「保證百分百安全」，「保險系數最高、零風險」，「不能讓結束一黨專政的人當選特首」。
被問及具體有什麼人，鄭耀棠說，「不用我講，你都知道是什麼人的」。
鄭耀棠表示，即使有人搞佔中，中央「兩害取其輕」下，絕不允許結束一黨專政當選特首，因為會為中國帶來無限災難，一定要保障國家安全，這是基本國策。
泛民班阿哥阿姐阿滋阿唑，喺處嘈但卻做不到實在嘢，淨是識得喊 ”口號“，毫無策略與中央溝通，臨尾尾沒人睬最後死死氣，沒有習近平，沒有張德江，沒有王光亞，只得 張曉明 應酬應酬一吓，總算話聽過泛民的意見，云云。
所謂 ”袋著先“ 的普選，卻把原本的 “選舉委員會” shift 前 變成 “提名委員會”， 提委會是要機構提名，框框就是要過半的提名委員通過，才可以成為候選人，這個安排豈不是 “經已選了” 特首？
【大公報】
全國人大常委會將於本月底開會，議程涉及香港政改問題，據了解，會期由8月25至31日，本港代表列席會議人數會增加，大約有 8至 10人。昨日亦有消息指，預計有關決定趨向保守，參選人要取得提委會過半數支持才能「出閘」，以符合機構提名的原則。消息說，一旦今次政改原地踏步，下屆政府不可能再啟動政改諮詢，民主步伐將拖慢十年，最快亦要至2027年才會有由普選產生的行政長官。
據了解，除了全國人大常委範徐麗泰和基本法委員會副主任梁愛詩外，基本法委員會委員譚惠珠、黃玉山都會列席此次常委會。將赴京列席會議的港區全國人大代表還包括：身兼立法會議員的馬逢國、葉國謙、廖長江等，行會成員史美倫，以及今屆才當選港區全國人大代表的黃友嘉、姚祖輝、吳秋北和張明敏等。
過半數可體現整體意志
黃友嘉昨日應邀與民主黨會面商討政改問題，他認為，各方對普選方案仍然存在許多不同看法，是大家觀點與角度問題。他表示，中央對行政長官的任命並非「橡皮圖章」，又指出爭議在於提名過程如何體現愛國愛港。黃友嘉認為，如要達到共識，定出具體方案，仍須在很多原則問題上收窄一定距離。他認同，若要在 2017年實行普選，時間確實非常緊迫。黃友嘉又說，未確定自己能否列席本月底在北京召開的人大常委會會議，仍有待通知最終安排。
吳秋北表示，會向全國人大常委會表達參選人需獲過半數提名委員會成員支持才能出閘選特首的建議。他表示，過半數可以體現機構的整體意志，亦可以確保候選人獲社會不同界別支持。
消息：中央無退讓餘地
有消息人士昨日向傳媒透露，預計全國人大常委會的決定趨向保守，甚至極度保守，也並不出奇。由於基本法45條列明，行政長官候選人是由提名委員會提名，提名門檻必須顯示提委會的集體意志，過半數是最低要求，因此這一點涉及如何演繹基本法，中央認為沒有退讓餘地。
消息指，中央的底線是行政長官候選人必須愛國愛港，不能與中央對抗。消息人士說，中央決心落實普選，但今次是國家第一次實行普選，中央傾向「穩陣」，寧願高度保險，避免出錯，確保不會有對抗中央的人，出任行政長官。至於如果過半數提名是採用「多票制」或「全票制」，人大常委會將作決定。消息人士亦估計，全國人大常委會會表述「愛國愛港」，但不會定額外條文。至於「公民提名」及「公民推薦」，預料不會明文提及不符合基本法，只會強調提委會負責提名候選人。
消息人士表示，即使提名門檻傾向保守，但仍然希望反對派的立法會議員支持政改方案。因為根據基本法，落實一人一票普選行政長官後，以後仍然可以改善提名委員會的組成及提名程序。
據了解，政府正研究將來向立法會提交政改決議案時，明文列明即使落實普選後，仍然可以再次啟動政改「五步曲」，改善提名委員會的組成及提名程序，爭取反對派支持方案，接受「袋住先」。
倘原地踏步需拖到 2027
消息人士分析，中央政府對反對派信心屢創新低，本以為 5月 6日「佔中」商討日之後，溫和中間派聲音可以冒起，但最終錯失機會，篩走了溫和中間方案。消息人士又指出，面對美國重返亞洲、中國被圍堵等國際形勢，加上香港本土意識甚至「港獨」勢力抬頭，中央有一定憂慮。消息又指，「佔中」出現，反而令中央立場更加強硬。
消息人士說，若政改「原地踏步」，社會要有心理準備，可能要到 2027年才有普選。消息指，現時面對的現實，是接受非完美「袋住先」的方案，還是原地踏步。消息人士又說，無論人大常委會的決定如何，「佔領中環」將會出現，亦可能會罷課，難免會對交通和商戶生意有影響，但估計不會影響本港金融中心地位。
2012年的特首選舉 “選舉委員會” 有 1200人，梁振英得票 689 僅僅過半，便成為 “大話特首”，任期五年至 2017年 6月，也被稱為 689特首。既然 ”選委會“ 將會變成 ”提委會“，候選人需要過半數的 ”提委會“，這即是經已選好了特首，再交由香港的選民，一人一票做一次 ”橡皮圖章“ 啫？
無論 ”提名委員會“ 增加幾多人，增加幾多界別（北京絕不會接受全民普選提名委會委員），因此仍然是一個 ”小圈子“選舉，得到他們選好選妥後，就交出幾個所謂：”特首候選人“，給廣大選民一人一票選特首，這與做 ”橡皮圖章“ 有何分別呢？上面 黃友嘉說：中央對行政長官的任命並非「橡皮圖章」，likewise 港人應該也不要做「橡皮圖章」。
君不見歷屆的特首：董建華，曾蔭權，和 梁振英，是甚麽水準的特首，有幾多斤両香港市民經已知道一清二楚。這些特首並不是以香港人利益先行，而是每每先着眼與中央關係，顧慮國內同胞的感受人情，寧願傷害香港人感情，犧牲下港人利益福祉，都要先顧著國內同胞。
照現在的環境，”袋著先“ 方案之下有能力之仕，都不會出來當候選人，到時可找到的還是 董建華，曾蔭權，和 梁振英 之流的人物，而且更有可能就只有一個：梁振英，而其他的都比 梁振英 更再低幾班的掛名候選人，香港人到時是否真的有得選擇呢？or choose the less EVIL 還是只得 梁振英 單一選擇！！！
嗜悲 記得清清楚楚，年前 梁振英 有一名句：『港人不應未富先驕！』來罵香港人，因為一部份針對內地同胞的一些不良行動。市民經過多次投訴不文明的內地同胞，才不再增加自由行城市，限奶令是經過幾多民怨沸騰，才後知後覺實施的，樓市辣招是經已把樓市推高了幾多成後，才急急草議的急就章（到後來才在立法會草草通過）。。。。。。。non exhaustive ！！！
雖然 嗜悲 是一向習慣絕不會去投票，但因為其他的人會甘願一人一票選出新的特首（很可能都是 梁振英 再多做五年），北京就振振有辭說這位是有幾百萬張票選的特首，是有民意基礎的特首，哈哈哈 。。。。。。到時就可 他她 就可以為所欲為 。。。。。。。香港人們你們就辭窮了！
記得 梁振英 年初的 ”施政報告“ 搶先在 財政司 曾俊華 的每年一度的財政預算前，提出一連串的 ”派錢“，財源由何出來呢？沒有具體說明。
當時各傳媒都不約而同追問，要求 梁振英 講清講楚解釋錢從何來，若不加稅增加收入究竟錢何來，有線新聞的 林妙茵 更要求保證不加稅。梁振英 的回應是不斷的重覆，是要從經濟增長得到額外的 200億，來填補這個福利開支，而不是以往行之有效的審慎理財哲學。
梁振英 敦起個囧樣，樂觀的指出過去特區政府的 16年，有 11年有盈餘 5年出現赤字，盈餘總額高過赤字的歷史記錄就樂觀地預測，以後的年份都只要維持經濟增長，就會陸陸逐逐產生巨額盈餘，就可以應付新增的 200億經常性支出。
這豈不就是就跌入歐美政府已經頭痛不已，後悔怨恨很久但為期已晚，無法回頭的死胡同：先使未來錢，這個坎井將會把香港推向絕路萬劫不復！
怎知八月初 梁振英 就露了餡，借 曾俊華 的審慎理財，下令政府各部門於 2016/17 年度起，連續兩個財政年度削減開支 1%作為儲備，並需上繳中央然後「再分配」。整個政府各司局長，在訓令之下積極否認是「閂水喉」。
但以後各司局長的預算，也即是資源分配機制亦會由過去「由下而上」改為「由上而下」，《施政報告》會初步訂定新政策，再邀請相關部門「入標」。 往後一定要配合特首的 ”施政報告“，內裡作出的派錢承諾與方針而為之。
所謂一人一票選出新的特首（很可能都是：梁振英 再做五年），港府和北京將會陣陣有辭，說這位是有幾百萬張選票的特首，是有民意基礎的特首，到時就可以變本加厲，更加可以打橫來行，變成為所欲為更加專橫獨裁，到時港人若要反對尚餘幾多板斧呢？
一旦有了 ”普選特首“ ，為了選票派錢必會派得更勁，到時就要加稅和增加各項政府收費，由政府帶頭加價，到時百物飛漲，蠶食納稅人的購買力，有錢人和窮人不會受影響，又再一次搵受薪階級的納稅人來開刀。嗜悲 不敢想像會衰到甚麽地步喲！
嗜悲 寫 Blog 七年多以來，都有講害怕不成熟的民主，因為她只會帶來：福利主義 + 派錢黨 之禍。因此，嗜悲 寧願接受原地踏步，也不要 2017年做橡皮圖章選出的所謂 ”普選” 特首，因為得到了 mandate 選民授權就可以變本加厲。
沒有 “政改” 起碼衰極都是像現時這樣，雖然仍然是小圈子的選舉，嗜悲 還可以搵到餐食，還希望也許這頭猛獸會來得慢一點，可以留下小許積蓄將來養老 。。。。。。Immanuel 以馬奈利，Amen 阿門！
後記：
佔中二十多天後，梁振英 接受外國傳媒的訪問，赤裸裸指出：月入萬四元以下的 香港市民，佔香港人口的 70%，他們將會出選舉和被選，因為害怕 “福利主義” 候選人 入閘，影響香港的營商環境，故此要為行政長官和立法會普選落閘云云。
CY Leung: ” Democracy would see poorer people dominate Hong Kong vote......“
【SCMP】
Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying told media that if the government met pro-democracy protesters’ demands it would result in the city’s poorer people dominating elections.
In an interview with foreign media, carried in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times and the International New York Times, the embattled chief executive reiterated his position that free elections were impossible.
Demonstrators have paralysed parts of Hong Kong with mass rallies and road blockades for more than three weeks, in one of the biggest challenges to Beijing’s authority since the Tiananmen pro-democracy protests of 1989.
Leung’s comments were published just hours before talks between senior government officials and student leaders to end the impasse are scheduled to take place later on Tuesday.
China has offered Hongkongers the chance to vote for their next leader in 2017. But only those vetted by a committee expected to be loyal to Beijing will be allowed to stand - something protesters have labelled as “fake democracy”.
Leung said that if candidates were nominated by the public then the largest sector of society would likely dominate the electoral process.
“If it’s entirely a numbers game and numeric representation, then obviously you’d be talking to the half of the people in Hong Kong who earn less than US$1,800 a month (HK$13,964.2),” Leung said in comments published by the WSJ, the FT and the INYT.
The chief executive said, however, that the government was willing to listen to student representatives in a first dialogue meeting set for Tuesday evening. “We’d like to listen to the students as to what they have on their minds, and what their proposals are,” Leung said. “We are all ears.”
“There could be a compromise, somewhere in between, by making the nomination committee more acceptable to these students,” he said.
Semi-autonomous Hong Kong has one of the biggest income divides in the world, with growing discontent at increased inequality and exorbitant property prices fuelling the protests which turned increasingly violent at the end of last week.
There are fears any further clashes between police and protesters could derail Tuesday’s discussions.
Leung’s latest comments are likely to further fuel the anger of protesters who see him as hapless, out of touch and pandering to the whims of a small number of tycoons who dominate the financial hub.
His quotes also echo that of Wang Zhenmin, a well-connected scholar and regular adviser to Beijing.
Wang said recently that greater democratic freedom in the semi-autonomous city must be balanced against the city’s powerful business elite who would have to share their “slice of the pie” with voters.
“The business community is in reality a very small group of elites in Hong Kong who control the destiny of the economy in Hong Kong. If we ignore their interests, Hong Kong capitalism will stop working,” he said in August.
Leung played down expectations ahead of the long-delayed talks with student leaders that will be broadcast live.
“We are not quite sure what they will say... at the session,” he said.
梁振英 一向靠嚇 。。。。。。
對！一個派錢黨的特首候選人，可能承諾 ”福利主義“ 企圖拉票，但香港市民不是無知的，況且兼且若政改的第二部份，讓立法會有一個普選的立法會，廢除功能組別的立法會，將會有效監察政府開支。
這是 梁振英 的語言偽術，以 “騙” 蓋全誤導中 “鏟” 支持 “袋著先”。Anyway 以防萬一，嗜悲 仍然主張 原地踏步！
後後記：
第二部份 政改諮詢 林鄭月娥 提出：2017 機不可失！
政務司司長在 2015年 1月 7日到立法會會議發表，啟動行政長官普選辦法第二輪公眾諮詢。
林司長表示，2017 年普選行政長官是廣大市民的期待，是五百萬合資格選民的權利，希望議員、政黨和社會各界能夠把握今次的黃金機會，積極參與諮詢。
嗜悲 沒有動搖，仍然 接受現實 原地踏步，總比較 “袋著先”、 “有票都唔要” 、“2017 機不可失” 較符合我的經濟情況！
伸延閱覽：
The Rules for Hong Kong Electoral Reform WSJ
鄭耀棠:泛民失時機 國家不等人 信報
出閘選特首料需提委過半 大公報
CY Leung: 'Democracy would see poorer people dominate Hong Kong vote' SCMP
我的舊文：
認命者言 （上）
不見 不聞 不問
鬼唔知阿媽喺女人咩！
做人要有"中指"
不言而喻
林鄭的成語和俚語
還有七年多
